🏟 MLB HR Prop Research

Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · 2 games · 36 ranked batters · top HR prob 11.0%

⚠️ Research is pre-game (not live). Data pulled · — confirm a game hasn't started before betting.

🔥 Top HR picks — top 35 of 36 ranked batters

#	Player	Team	vs SP	Park	Wx	HR%	Env	Platoon	Barrel%	xwOBA Δ	Tier
1▸	Shohei Ohtani (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~11.0%	+4.0%	—	16.2%	+0.020	B
B~11.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Moderate — 11.0% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR30 HR xwOBA0.397 Barrel%16.2% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo93.3 mph Hard-hit%52.1% xwOBA Δ+0.020 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
2▸	Jake Bauers (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~9.8%	+4.0%	—	13.9%	-0.010	B
B~9.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Moderate — 9.8% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR26 HR xwOBA0.371 Barrel%13.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo92.1 mph Hard-hit%51.9% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
3▸	Max Muncy (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~9.5%	+4.0%	—	12.9%	-0.012	B
B~9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Moderate — 9.5% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR29 HR xwOBA0.349 Barrel%12.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%45.8% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
4▸	Will Smith (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~9.3%	+4.0%	—	12.4%	+0.044	B
B~9.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Moderate — 9.3% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.389 Barrel%12.4% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.1 mph Hard-hit%41.2% xwOBA Δ+0.044 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
5▸	Jackson Chourio (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~9.1%	+4.0%	—	12.3%	-0.017	Lotto
Lotto~9.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 9.1% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR25 HR xwOBA0.344 Barrel%12.3% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo91.6 mph Hard-hit%47.0% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
6▸	Garrett Mitchell (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~8.8%	+4.0%	—	11.7%	+0.013	Lotto
Lotto~8.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 8.8% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.353 Barrel%11.7% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo93.2 mph Hard-hit%52.7% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
7▸	Junior Caminero (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~8.5%	-5.0%	—	13.1%	-0.011	Lotto
Lotto~8.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 8.5% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR42 HR xwOBA0.364 Barrel%13.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo92.7 mph Hard-hit%49.7% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
8▸	Teoscar Hernández (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~8.5%	+4.0%	—	10.6%	+0.000	Lotto
Lotto~8.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 8.5% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.332 Barrel%10.6% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%44.8% xwOBA Δ+0.000 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
9▸	Christian Yelich (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.8%	+4.0%	—	9.6%	+0.003	Lotto
Lotto~7.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.8% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.308 Barrel%9.6% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%42.9% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
10▸	Victor Mesa Jr. (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~7.5%	-5.0%	—	10.8%	-0.026	Lotto
Lotto~7.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.5% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.329 Barrel%10.8% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%42.2% xwOBA Δ-0.026 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
11▸	Freddie Freeman (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.4%	+4.0%	—	8.1%	+0.015	Lotto
Lotto~7.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.4% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.363 Barrel%8.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.5 mph Hard-hit%41.3% xwOBA Δ+0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
12▸	Enrique Hernández (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.4%	+4.0%	—	8.1%	-0.014	Lotto
Lotto~7.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.4% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#9 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.279 Barrel%8.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.0 mph Hard-hit%40.3% xwOBA Δ-0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
13▸	William Contreras (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.3%	+4.0%	—	8.5%	+0.004	Lotto
Lotto~7.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.3% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.334 Barrel%8.5% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%44.1% xwOBA Δ+0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
14▸	Andy Pages (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.3%	+4.0%	—	7.9%	-0.009	Lotto
Lotto~7.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.3% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#8 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR23 HR xwOBA0.343 Barrel%7.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%42.3% xwOBA Δ-0.009 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
15▸	Mookie Betts (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.2%	+4.0%	—	7.8%	+0.001	Lotto
Lotto~7.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.2% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR23 HR xwOBA0.339 Barrel%7.8% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.2 mph Hard-hit%38.0% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
16▸	Jonathan Aranda (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~7.1%	-5.0%	—	9.9%	-0.005	Lotto
Lotto~7.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.1% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.343 Barrel%9.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo91.1 mph Hard-hit%46.0% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
17▸	Brice Turang (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~7.0%	+4.0%	—	7.7%	-0.014	Lotto
Lotto~7.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Longshot — 7.0% (estimated) HR probability with no confirmed platoon edge; small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.344 Barrel%7.7% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%41.6% xwOBA Δ-0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
18▸	Kyle Tucker (?)	LAD	Shane Drohan (LHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~6.6%	+4.0%	—	6.3%	+0.013	Unranked
Unranked~6.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%6.3% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%36.3% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA4.19 HR/91.01 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
19▸	Jo Adell (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~6.4%	-5.0%	—	8.9%	+0.022	Unranked
Unranked~6.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR23 HR xwOBA0.329 Barrel%8.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.4 mph Hard-hit%44.9% xwOBA Δ+0.022 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
20▸	Jorge Mateo (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~6.2%	-5.0%	—	7.9%	+0.024	Unranked
Unranked~6.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.272 Barrel%7.9% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo87.3 mph Hard-hit%35.0% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
21▸	Nathaniel Lowe (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~6.1%	-5.0%	—	8.3%	+0.006	Unranked
Unranked~6.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.335 Barrel%8.3% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%41.4% xwOBA Δ+0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
22▸	Patrick Bailey (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~5.8%	-5.0%	—	7.6%	+0.036	Unranked
Unranked~5.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#7 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.307 Barrel%7.6% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.5 mph Hard-hit%42.4% xwOBA Δ+0.036 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
23▸	Yandy Díaz (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~5.8%	-5.0%	—	7.1%	-0.004	Unranked
Unranked~5.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.346 Barrel%7.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.9 mph Hard-hit%48.1% xwOBA Δ-0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
24▸	Chase DeLauter (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~5.2%	-5.0%	—	6.3%	-0.013	Unranked
Unranked~5.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.346 Barrel%6.3% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo91.4 mph Hard-hit%46.3% xwOBA Δ-0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
25▸	David Hamilton (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~5.0%	+4.0%	—	3.4%	-0.017	Unranked
Unranked~5.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.276 Barrel%3.4% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo86.8 mph Hard-hit%27.9% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
26▸	Cooper Pratt (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~5.0%	+4.0%	—	3.2%	-0.005	Unranked
Unranked~5.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.315 Barrel%3.2% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo87.0 mph Hard-hit%27.4% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
27▸	Petey Halpin (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~4.8%	-5.0%	—	5.4%	+0.031	Unranked
Unranked~4.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.295 Barrel%5.4% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo85.5 mph Hard-hit%25.5% xwOBA Δ+0.031 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
28▸	Sal Frelick (?)	MIL	Tyler Glasnow (RHP)	UNIQLO Field at Do	90° ☀️ 7 ↑	~4.5%	+4.0%	—	2.3%	+0.006	Unranked
Unranked~4.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.281 Barrel%2.3% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo85.7 mph Hard-hit%26.8% xwOBA Δ+0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTyler Glasnow (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/90.85 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.018 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium Park HR factor104 Park-factor delta+4.0% Temp90°F Wind7 mph S WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) Precip0%
29▸	Angel Genao (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~4.5%	-5.0%	—	4.7%	+0.025	Unranked
Unranked~4.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.286 Barrel%4.7% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo90.8 mph Hard-hit%51.9% xwOBA Δ+0.025 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
30▸	Liam Hicks (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~4.3%	-5.0%	—	3.7%	-0.033	Unranked
Unranked~4.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.319 Barrel%3.7% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo84.6 mph Hard-hit%27.1% xwOBA Δ-0.033 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
31▸	Jonny DeLuca (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~4.2%	-5.0%	—	3.6%	-0.056	Unranked
Unranked~4.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#7 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.261 Barrel%3.6% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo85.8 mph Hard-hit%30.2% xwOBA Δ-0.056 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
32▸	José Ramírez (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~4.2%	-5.0%	—	4.1%	+0.024	Unranked
Unranked~4.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%4.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo88.6 mph Hard-hit%38.8% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
33▸	Brayan Rocchio (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~3.6%	-5.0%	—	2.8%	-0.017	Unranked
Unranked~3.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#9 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.294 Barrel%2.8% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo87.0 mph Hard-hit%30.0% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
34▸	Taylor Walls (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~3.5%	-5.0%	—	2.1%	-0.027	Unranked
Unranked~3.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Not yet gradable — model or lineup data still pending. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.251 Barrel%2.1% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo85.6 mph Hard-hit%21.9% xwOBA Δ-0.027 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
35▸	Steven Kwan (?)	CLE	Griffin Jax (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~3.0%	-5.0%	—	0.4%	-0.006	Fade
Fade~3.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Fade — 3.0% (estimated) HR probability and/or no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.328 Barrel%0.4% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo83.9 mph Hard-hit%10.5% xwOBA Δ-0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGriffin Jax (RHP) ERA3.53 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.021 Barrel% allowed8.5% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%
36▸	Chandler Simpson (?)	TB	Gavin Williams (RHP)	Progressive Field	64° ⛅ 3 ↑	~3.0%	-5.0%	—	0.0%	-0.042	Fade
Fade~3.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: — Why this grade: Fade — 3.0% (estimated) HR probability and/or no confirmed platoon edge. 🧢 Batter Bats? Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.263 Barrel%0.0% L15 barrel%— L10 sample— L15 sample— Pitch-mix K risk— Direct BvP— Exit velo83.7 mph Hard-hit%13.6% xwOBA Δ-0.042 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGavin Williams (RHP) ERA3.76 HR/91.37 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.008 Barrel% allowed11.4% 🌤 Environment ParkProgressive Field Park HR factor95 Park-factor delta-5.0% Temp64°F Wind3 mph SSE CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently Precip1%

Ranked by projected HR probability — click any row for the full batter / pitcher / environment breakdown, search by player/team/pitcher, or click a column header to re-sort. Time is your local first-pitch time and shows live game status — inning · score while in progress, Final when done — updated automatically from the live feed. proj = lineup not yet confirmed. ~ = estimated probability.

Reading the verdicts: BUY recommended play · LEAN alternate / secondary · FADE avoid. The Bet Card lists only the top (BUY) plays; LEAN names are the alternates.

Select a game for its recommendation, weather, pitchers, and analysis. Sorted by start time (earliest first).

· TB @ CLE · Progressive Field STARTEDno model line

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 64°F · CALM — wind minimal factor — single source, verify independently · precip 1% · weather single-source

SP: Griffin Jax @ Gavin Williams

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Junior Caminero (TB · Lotto · 8.5%), Victor Mesa Jr. (TB · Lotto · 7.5%), Jonathan Aranda (TB · Lotto · 7.1%).

· MIL @ LAD · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium STARTEDno model line

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 90°F · WEATHER SOURCE CONFLICT — treat wind as neutral (park-relative wind disagrees (out vs in)) · precip 0%

SP: Shane Drohan @ Tyler Glasnow

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD · B · 11.0%), Jake Bauers (MIL · B · 9.8%), Max Muncy (LAD · B · 9.5%).

📋 Slate overview & cross-source notes

> Automated narrative unavailable: research needs updating after lineup membership changed (+1/-1). The ranked board below was generated from the available structured data, but it has not received the final cross-source review. Treat it as informational and verify lineups before using it.

🎯 Recommended picks & combinations

🎯 Tonight's straight-bet shortlist

No S/A-tier bat clears a book's break-even price tonight.

No S/A-tier plays on the board today — no parlay card. Check the Top Picks tab for the full ranking.

📈 Track record

View:

12.2%overall HR hit rate · 1468/12030 played picks

Graded slate(s): 2026-06-12 → 2026-10-14 · league HR baseline ≈ 12% per qualified bat. Higher tiers should beat it.

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	19/90	21.1%
A	204/1156	17.6%
B	540/3617	14.9%
Lotto	393/3627	10.8%
Fade	122/1495	8.2%
Unranked	190/2045	9.3%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	49/206	23.8%
16–20%	185/1055	17.5%
12–16%	284/2120	13.4%
8–12%	214/2122	10.1%
<8%	113/1305	8.7%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	845/6808	12.4%
Metrics	623/5222	11.9%
Sharp breakdown	68/436	15.6%

Day

Day	HR / played	Hit rate
2026-06-12	5/36	13.9%
2026-06-13	13/84	15.5%
2026-06-15	20/143	14.0%
2026-06-16	6/72	8.3%
2026-06-17	24/124	19.4%
2026-06-18	5/36	13.9%
2026-06-19	34/225	15.1%
2026-06-20	11/116	9.5%
2026-06-21	3/18	16.7%
2026-06-22	8/143	5.6%
2026-06-23	30/245	12.2%
2026-06-24	16/185	8.6%
2026-06-25	13/99	13.1%
2026-06-26	28/243	11.5%
2026-06-27	15/162	9.3%
2026-06-28	0/18	0.0%
2026-06-29	30/227	13.2%
2026-06-30	36/241	14.9%
2026-07-01	19/141	13.5%
2026-07-02	15/108	13.9%
2026-07-03	28/208	13.5%
2026-07-04	30/195	15.4%
2026-07-05	4/36	11.1%
2026-07-06	18/121	14.9%
2026-07-07	24/255	9.4%
2026-07-08	27/246	11.0%
2026-07-09	17/125	13.6%
2026-07-10	41/248	16.5%
2026-07-11	21/126	16.7%
2026-07-14	0/11	0.0%
2026-07-16	3/18	16.7%
2026-07-17	27/216	12.5%
2026-07-18	7/62	11.3%
2026-07-19	1/8	12.5%
2026-07-20	45/268	16.8%
2026-07-21	26/225	11.6%
2026-07-22	17/132	12.9%
2026-07-23	2/18	11.1%
2026-07-24	23/249	9.2%
2026-08-17	9/72	12.5%
2026-08-18	32/266	12.0%
2026-08-19	18/178	10.1%
2026-08-20	5/54	9.3%
2026-08-21	28/247	11.3%
2026-08-22	31/213	14.6%
2026-08-23	1/18	5.6%
2026-08-24	15/170	8.8%
2026-08-25	28/261	10.7%
2026-08-26	4/18	22.2%
2026-08-27	2/18	11.1%
2026-08-28	5/18	27.8%
2026-08-29	6/77	7.8%
2026-08-30	5/18	27.8%
2026-08-31	2/54	3.7%
2026-09-01	20/161	12.4%
2026-09-02	13/107	12.1%
2026-09-03	13/108	12.0%
2026-09-04	30/225	13.3%
2026-09-05	22/196	11.2%
2026-09-06	1/9	11.1%
2026-09-07	5/45	11.1%
2026-09-08	35/270	13.0%
2026-09-09	40/251	15.9%
2026-09-10	6/54	11.1%
2026-09-11	28/261	10.7%
2026-09-12	41/252	16.3%
2026-09-13	9/72	12.5%
2026-09-14	22/180	12.2%
2026-09-15	33/261	12.6%
2026-09-16	23/198	11.6%
2026-09-17	9/90	10.0%
2026-09-18	34/269	12.6%
2026-09-19	28/243	11.5%
2026-09-20	11/108	10.2%
2026-09-21	8/54	14.8%
2026-09-22	22/252	8.7%
2026-09-23	22/243	9.1%
2026-09-24	13/125	10.4%
2026-09-25	31/261	11.9%
2026-09-26	26/198	13.1%
2026-09-29	5/54	9.3%
2026-09-30	5/45	11.1%
2026-10-01	3/18	16.7%
2026-10-03	8/54	14.8%
2026-10-04	1/35	2.9%
2026-10-05	1/18	5.6%
2026-10-06	4/36	11.1%
2026-10-07	4/54	7.4%
2026-10-08	2/18	11.1%
2026-10-10	1/18	5.6%
2026-10-11	1/18	5.6%
2026-10-12	2/18	11.1%
2026-10-13	0/18	0.0%
2026-10-14	3/18	16.7%

16.7%3/18 played picks homered · Wed, Oct 14, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/2	0.0%
Lotto	3/8	37.5%
Unranked	0/8	0.0%

💥 Who homered (3)

Lotto Jake Bauers (MIL) —
Lotto Garrett Mitchell (MIL) —
Lotto Jackson Chourio (MIL) —

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
Lotto	0/2	0.0%
Fade	0/4	0.0%
Unranked	0/12	0.0%

11.1%2/18 played picks homered · Mon, Oct 12, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
Lotto	0/3	0.0%
Fade	0/2	0.0%
Unranked	2/13	15.4%

💥 Who homered (2)

Unranked Patrick Bailey (CLE) —
Unranked Chase DeLauter (CLE) —

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/3	0.0%
Lotto	1/10	10.0%
Unranked	0/5	0.0%

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/1	0.0%
Lotto	0/3	0.0%
Fade	0/1	0.0%
Unranked	1/13	7.7%

11.1%2/18 played picks homered · Thu, Oct 08, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/1	0.0%
Lotto	1/5	20.0%
Fade	0/1	0.0%
Unranked	1/11	9.1%

💥 Who homered (2)

Unranked José Ramírez (CLE) —
Lotto Miguel Vargas (CWS) —

7.4%4/54 played picks homered · Wed, Oct 07, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/2	0.0%
B	1/9	11.1%
Lotto	3/21	14.3%
Fade	0/6	0.0%
Unranked	0/16	0.0%

💥 Who homered (4)

Lotto Max Muncy (LAD) —
Lotto Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
Lotto Ryan Vilade (TB) —
B Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) —

11.1%4/36 played picks homered · Tue, Oct 06, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/2	0.0%
Lotto	0/6	0.0%
Fade	1/8	12.5%
Unranked	3/20	15.0%

💥 Who homered (4)

Unranked Freddie Freeman (LAD) —
Unranked Enrique Hernández (LAD) —
Fade Jake Cronenworth (SD) —
Unranked William Contreras (MIL) —

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/1	0.0%
Lotto	1/5	20.0%
Fade	0/2	0.0%
Unranked	0/10	0.0%

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	0/5	0.0%
Lotto	1/18	5.6%
Unranked	0/12	0.0%

14.8%8/54 played picks homered · Sat, Oct 03, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	2/7	28.6%
Lotto	5/24	20.8%
Fade	0/1	0.0%
Unranked	1/22	4.5%

💥 Who homered (8)

B Max Muncy (LAD) —
Lotto Teoscar Hernández (LAD) —
Unranked Ozzie Albies (ATL) —
Lotto Kyle Tucker (LAD) —
Lotto Sean Murphy (ATL) —
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) —
B Jackson Chourio (MIL) —
Lotto Jonathan Aranda (TB) —

16.7%3/18 played picks homered · Thu, Oct 01, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	1/5	20.0%
Lotto	1/4	25.0%
Unranked	1/9	11.1%

💥 Who homered (3)

B Matt Olson (ATL) —
Unranked Ozzie Albies (ATL) —
Lotto Michael Harris II (ATL) —

11.1%5/45 played picks homered · Wed, Sep 30, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/3	0.0%
B	2/9	22.2%
Lotto	2/12	16.7%
Fade	0/8	0.0%
Unranked	1/13	7.7%

💥 Who homered (5)

Unranked Chase Meidroth (CWS) —
B Willson Contreras (BOS) —
Lotto Cody Bellinger (NYY) —
B Luis García Jr. (NYY) —
Lotto Nick Sogard (BOS) —

9.3%5/54 played picks homered · Tue, Sep 29, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	1/4	25.0%
B	0/10	0.0%
Lotto	1/15	6.7%
Fade	0/6	0.0%
Unranked	3/19	15.8%

💥 Who homered (5)

Unranked Manny Machado (SD) —
Unranked Xander Bogaerts (SD) —
Unranked Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
Lotto Colson Montgomery (CWS) —
A Ben Rice (NYY) —

13.1%26/198 played picks homered · Sat, Sep 26, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	3/8	37.5%
B	4/27	14.8%
Lotto	5/64	7.8%
Fade	0/15	0.0%
Unranked	14/84	16.7%

💥 Who homered (26)

Lotto JJ Bleday (CIN) —
Unranked J.P. Crawford (SEA) —
Unranked Enrique Hernández (LAD) —
Unranked Mookie Betts (LAD) —
Unranked James McCann (AZ) —
Unranked Manny Machado (SD) —
Unranked Xander Bogaerts (SD) —
A Junior Caminero (TB) —
Unranked Danny Jansen (TEX) —
Lotto Jake Burger (TEX) —
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) —
Lotto Alec Burleson (STL) —
Unranked Dominic Smith (ATL) —
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) —
Unranked Javier Sanoja (MIA) —
Unranked Patrick Bailey (CLE) —
Unranked Brayan Rocchio (CLE) —
Unranked Chase DeLauter (CLE) —
Unranked Ezequiel Tovar (COL) —
Unranked Luisangel Acuña (CWS) —
Lotto Brenton Doyle (CWS) —
B Hunter Goodman (COL) —
B Jeremy Peña (HOU) —
A Yordan Alvarez (HOU) —
B Isaac Paredes (HOU) —
A Lucas Spence (HOU) —

11.9%31/261 played picks homered · Fri, Sep 25, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	6/19	31.6%
B	3/37	8.1%
Lotto	9/79	11.4%
Fade	0/15	0.0%
Unranked	13/111	11.7%

💥 Who homered (31)

Unranked Bo Bichette (NYM) —
Lotto Dylan Crews (WSH) —
Unranked Carson Benge (NYM) —
Lotto Eugenio Suárez (CIN) —
Lotto Dominic Canzone (SEA) —
Lotto Zach Neto (LAA) —
Unranked Christian Moore (LAA) —
Unranked Teoscar Hernández (LAD) —
Unranked Andy Pages (LAD) —
Unranked Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
Unranked Lars Nootbaar (AZ) —
Unranked Jordan Lawlar (AZ) —
Unranked Nick Fortes (TB) —
A Pete Alonso (BAL) —
A Jeremiah Jackson (BAL) —
A Dylan Beavers (BAL) —
Lotto Kody Clemens (MIN) —
Lotto Iván Herrera (STL) —
B Jordan Walker (STL) —
B Griffin Conine (MIA) —
Unranked Joe Mack (MIA) —
Lotto Salvador Perez (KC) —
Unranked Austin Hedges (CLE) —
Unranked David Fry (CLE) —
Lotto Carter Jensen (KC) —
Lotto Spencer Torkelson (DET) —
B Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT) —
Unranked TJ Rumfield (COL) —
A Munetaka Murakami (CWS) —
A Christian Walker (HOU) —
A Cam Smith (HOU) —

10.4%13/125 played picks homered · Thu, Sep 24, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	1/11	9.1%
B	7/31	22.6%
Lotto	2/46	4.3%
Fade	0/1	0.0%
Unranked	3/36	8.3%

💥 Who homered (13)

Unranked Julio Rodríguez (SEA) —
B Austin Wells (NYY) —
B George Lombard Jr. (NYY) —
Lotto Angel Martínez (CLE) —
B Austin Riley (ATL) —
B Elly De La Cruz (CIN) —
Unranked Carlos Jorge (CIN) —
Unranked Héctor Rodríguez (CIN) —
A Christian Walker (HOU) —
Lotto Jeff McNeil (ATH) —
B Isaac Paredes (HOU) —
B Zack Gelof (ATH) —
B Lucas Spence (HOU) —

9.1%22/243 played picks homered · Wed, Sep 23, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	4/30	13.3%
B	9/48	18.8%
Lotto	6/75	8.0%
Fade	1/16	6.2%
Unranked	2/74	2.7%

💥 Who homered (22)

Unranked Marcus Semien (NYM) —
Lotto Juan Soto (NYM) —
Fade Luke Keaschall (MIN) —
Lotto Brandon Lowe (PIT) —
B Christian Yelich (MIL) —
B Brice Turang (MIL) —
B Ryan McMahon (NYY) —
Lotto Cedric Mullins (TB) —
A Ben Rice (NYY) —
B George Lombard Jr. (NYY) —
Lotto Manny Machado (SD) —
A Ezequiel Tovar (COL) —
A Tim Tawa (AZ) —
B Kyle Stowers (MIA) —
B Davis Schneider (TOR) —
B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) —
B Matt Olson (ATL) —
Lotto Austin Riley (ATL) —
Unranked Juan Brito (CIN) —
A Mike Trout (LAA) —
Lotto Donovan Walton (ATH) —
B Vaughn Grissom (LAA) —

8.7%22/252 played picks homered · Tue, Sep 22, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/20	10.0%
B	5/49	10.2%
Lotto	6/90	6.7%
Fade	0/12	0.0%
Unranked	9/81	11.1%

💥 Who homered (22)

Unranked Christian Walker (HOU) —
B Yordan Alvarez (HOU) —
Unranked Isaac Paredes (HOU) —
Unranked Walker Jenkins (MIN) —
Lotto Brandon Marsh (PHI) —
Unranked Tommy Edman (LAD) —
Lotto Will Smith (LAD) —
Unranked Randal Grichuk (CWS) —
Unranked Nick Loftin (KC) —
Lotto Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) —
Unranked Brenton Doyle (CWS) —
Unranked Chase Meidroth (CWS) —
B Munetaka Murakami (CWS) —
Lotto CJ Abrams (WSH) —
A Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
A Mickey Moniak (COL) —
B Kyle Stowers (MIA) —
Lotto Eugenio Suárez (CIN) —
Unranked Dane Myers (CIN) —
B Elly De La Cruz (CIN) —
B Zack Gelof (ATH) —
Lotto Denzer Guzman (LAA) —

14.8%8/54 played picks homered · Mon, Sep 21, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
B	1/5	20.0%
Lotto	3/10	30.0%
Fade	1/8	12.5%
Unranked	3/31	9.7%

💥 Who homered (8)

Fade Brooks Lee (MIN) —
Unranked Drew Gilbert (SF) —
Lotto Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) —
Unranked Javier Báez (DET) —
Lotto Spencer Torkelson (DET) —
Unranked Ben Malgeri (DET) —
B Pete Alonso (BAL) —
Lotto Gunnar Henderson (BAL) —

10.2%11/108 played picks homered · Sun, Sep 20, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	3/22	13.6%
B	1/22	4.5%
Lotto	3/34	8.8%
Fade	2/5	40.0%
Unranked	2/25	8.0%

💥 Who homered (11)

Fade Jake Cronenworth (SD) —
Unranked Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
Fade Javier Sanoja (MIA) —
Lotto Tommy Edman (LAD) —
Unranked Alan Roden (MIN) —
A Hunter Goodman (COL) —
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) —
Lotto Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
A Heliot Ramos (NYY) —
A Spencer Jones (NYY) —
B George Lombard Jr. (NYY) —

11.5%28/243 played picks homered · Sat, Sep 19, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/23	8.7%
B	6/35	17.1%
Lotto	6/70	8.6%
Fade	1/15	6.7%
Unranked	13/100	13.0%

💥 Who homered (28)

Unranked Josh Jung (TEX) —
Unranked Jonathan Aranda (TB) —
Lotto Daylen Lile (WSH) —
Unranked Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
Fade Samad Taylor (SD) —
Unranked Otto Lopez (MIA) —
Unranked Jake Mangum (PIT) —
Lotto Brandon Lowe (PIT) —
Unranked Ronny Simon (PIT) —
Lotto Carter Jensen (KC) —
B Francisco Alvarez (NYM) —
Unranked Carson Benge (NYM) —
B Will Smith (LAD) —
Lotto Victor Bericoto (SF) —
B Jose Siri (LAA) —
Unranked Vaughn Grissom (LAA) —
Unranked Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) —
Lotto Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) —
Unranked Isaac Paredes (HOU) —
A Cal Raleigh (SEA) —
A Randy Arozarena (SEA) —
Unranked Donovan Walton (ATH) —
Unranked Angel Martínez (CLE) —
Unranked Chase DeLauter (CLE) —
B Dansby Swanson (CHC) —
B Michael Busch (CHC) —
Lotto Austin Wells (NYY) —
B Heliot Ramos (NYY) —

12.6%34/269 played picks homered · Fri, Sep 18, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/20	10.0%
B	9/45	20.0%
Lotto	14/84	16.7%
Fade	1/14	7.1%
Unranked	8/106	7.5%

💥 Who homered (34)

Lotto Jahmai Jones (BOS) —
Lotto Roman Anthony (BOS) —
Unranked Dylan Crews (WSH) —
Unranked Ty France (SD) —
Fade Agustín Ramírez (MIA) —
Lotto Jackson Merrill (SD) —
Lotto Brandon Lowe (PIT) —
Unranked Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) —
Unranked Michael Massey (KC) —
Unranked Edmundo Sosa (PHI) —
Lotto Derek Hill (PHI) —
Lotto Juan Soto (NYM) —
Lotto Mookie Betts (LAD) —
Lotto Kyle Tucker (LAD) —
B Will Smith (LAD) —
Unranked Jung Hoo Lee (SF) —
Lotto Walker Jenkins (MIN) —
B Matt Olson (ATL) —
Lotto Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) —
Lotto Michael Harris II (ATL) —
A J.P. Crawford (SEA) —
A Lazaro Montes (SEA) —
Unranked José Ramírez (CLE) —
Lotto Zack Gelof (ATH) —
Unranked Travis Bazzana (CLE) —
B Ian Happ (CHC) —
B Miguel Vargas (CWS) —
B Riley Greene (DET) —
Lotto Hao-Yu Lee (DET) —
B Pete Alonso (BAL) —
B Jackson Chourio (MIL) —
B Corbin Carroll (AZ) —
B Ben Rice (NYY) —
Lotto George Lombard Jr. (NYY) —

10.0%9/90 played picks homered · Thu, Sep 17, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/1	0.0%
B	2/15	13.3%
Lotto	2/31	6.5%
Fade	0/5	0.0%
Unranked	5/38	13.2%

💥 Who homered (9)

Unranked Trevor Story (BOS) —
Unranked Josh Jung (TEX) —
Unranked Walker Jenkins (MIN) —
Lotto Daulton Varsho (HOU) —
Unranked LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) —
Unranked Jeremy Peña (HOU) —
Lotto Taylor Trammell (HOU) —
B Yordan Alvarez (HOU) —
B Munetaka Murakami (CWS) —

11.6%23/198 played picks homered · Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/20	10.0%
B	4/38	10.5%
Lotto	12/61	19.7%
Fade	0/7	0.0%
Unranked	5/72	6.9%

💥 Who homered (23)

Lotto Willson Contreras (BOS) —
Unranked Tommy White (ATH) —
Unranked Henry Bolte (ATH) —
Lotto Brandon Lowe (PIT) —
B Oneil Cruz (PIT) —
Lotto Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT) —
Lotto Pete Alonso (BAL) —
Unranked Jeremiah Jackson (BAL) —
B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) —
Lotto Samuel Basallo (BAL) —
Lotto John Rave (KC) —
Unranked Yainer Diaz (HOU) —
Lotto Michael Massey (KC) —
A Kyle Karros (COL) —
B Ethan Salas (SD) —
Lotto Dane Myers (CIN) —
A Elly De La Cruz (CIN) —
Lotto Alex Bregman (CHC) —
B Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) —
Lotto Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
Unranked Pavin Smith (AZ) —
Lotto Gabriel Moreno (AZ) —
Lotto Jakob Marsee (MIA) —

12.6%33/261 played picks homered · Tue, Sep 15, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	4/19	21.1%
B	8/42	19.0%
Lotto	13/81	16.0%
Fade	0/6	0.0%
Unranked	8/113	7.1%

💥 Who homered (33)

B Kyle Schwarber (PHI) —
Lotto Andrés Chaparro (WSH) —
Lotto Spencer Torkelson (DET) —
Lotto Hao-Yu Lee (DET) —
Unranked Nick Sogard (BOS) —
Lotto Junior Caminero (TB) —
Lotto Alec Burleson (STL) —
Lotto Bryce Eldridge (SF) —
Unranked Turner Hill (SF) —
Lotto Brandon Lowe (PIT) —
Lotto Pete Alonso (BAL) —
Unranked Jeremiah Jackson (BAL) —
B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) —
Lotto Coby Mayo (BAL) —
Unranked Carson Benge (NYM) —
Unranked Cody Bellinger (NYY) —
B Spencer Jones (NYY) —
Lotto Josh Lowe (LAA) —
Lotto Jeremy Peña (HOU) —
B Yordan Alvarez (HOU) —
Lotto Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) —
A Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
A Luis Campusano (SD) —
A Austin Hays (SD) —
A Cole Carrigg (COL) —
Unranked Jo Adell (CLE) —
Unranked Travis Bazzana (CLE) —
B Teoscar Hernández (LAD) —
B Alex Freeland (LAD) —
Unranked Ozzie Albies (ATL) —
B Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) —
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) —
Lotto Gabriel Moreno (AZ) —

12.2%22/180 played picks homered · Mon, Sep 14, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	6/24	25.0%
B	6/32	18.8%
Lotto	4/52	7.7%
Fade	0/7	0.0%
Unranked	6/65	9.2%

💥 Who homered (22)

B Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) —
Unranked Gunnar Henderson (BAL) —
Unranked A.J. Ewing (NYM) —
A Aaron Judge (NYY) —
Lotto Josh Bell (MIN) —
Lotto Austin Wells (NYY) —
Unranked José Caballero (NYY) —
Unranked J.P. Crawford (SEA) —
B Cal Raleigh (SEA) —
A Manny Machado (SD) —
A Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
A Cole Carrigg (COL) —
Lotto Miguel Vargas (CWS) —
A Teoscar Hernández (LAD) —
B Kyle Tucker (LAD) —
A Elly De La Cruz (CIN) —
B Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) —
B Lars Nootbaar (AZ) —
B Corbin Carroll (AZ) —
Unranked Javier Sanoja (MIA) —
Lotto Jordan Lawlar (AZ) —
Unranked Jakob Marsee (MIA) —

12.5%9/72 played picks homered · Sun, Sep 13, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/4	0.0%
B	4/21	19.0%
Lotto	2/19	10.5%
Fade	1/12	8.3%
Unranked	2/16	12.5%

💥 Who homered (9)

Unranked Manny Machado (SD) —
Fade Andrew Knizner (SF) —
Unranked Caleb Durbin (BOS) —
B Randy Arozarena (SEA) —
B Lawrence Butler (ATH) —
B Zack Gelof (ATH) —
Lotto Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
B Corey Seager (TEX) —
Lotto Gabriel Moreno (AZ) —

16.3%41/252 played picks homered · Sat, Sep 12, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/7	28.6%
B	7/44	15.9%
Lotto	15/78	19.2%
Fade	2/17	11.8%
Unranked	15/106	14.2%

💥 Who homered (41)

Unranked Vaughn Grissom (LAA) —
Lotto Pete Alonso (BAL) —
Unranked Alejandro Kirk (TOR) —
Unranked Brett Bateman (TOR) —
Unranked Isaac Paredes (HOU) —
Unranked Leo Bernal (STL) —
Unranked Rafael Devers (SF) —
Unranked Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) —
Fade Drew Gilbert (SF) —
Unranked Shay Whitcomb (SF) —
Unranked Jackson Merrill (SD) —
Fade Drew Cavanaugh (SF) —
B Francisco Lindor (NYM) —
Lotto Luis Torrens (NYM) —
B Cody Bellinger (NYY) —
A Juan Soto (NYM) —
B Jared Young (NYM) —
B Carson Benge (NYM) —
Lotto Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) —
Lotto Eugenio Suárez (CIN) —
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) —
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) —
B Garrett Mitchell (MIL) —
Unranked Juan Brito (CIN) —
Lotto Max Muncy (LAD) —
Unranked Mookie Betts (LAD) —
Unranked Graham Pauley (MIA) —
Unranked Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) —
Lotto Michael Busch (CHC) —
Unranked Pedro Ramírez (CHC) —
Lotto Carter Jensen (KC) —
Lotto Bryce Harper (PHI) —
Lotto Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) —
Lotto Michael Harris II (ATL) —
Unranked Justin Crawford (PHI) —
B J.P. Crawford (SEA) —
B Randy Arozarena (SEA) —
A Dominic Canzone (SEA) —
Lotto Cole Young (SEA) —
Lotto Michael Arroyo (SEA) —
Lotto Wyatt Langford (TEX) —

10.7%28/261 played picks homered · Fri, Sep 11, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	1/16	6.2%
B	13/43	30.2%
Lotto	8/89	9.0%
Fade	0/11	0.0%
Unranked	6/102	5.9%

💥 Who homered (28)

B Mike Trout (LAA) —
B Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) —
Lotto Dylan Beavers (BAL) —
B Coby Mayo (BAL) —
Unranked Brett Bateman (TOR) —
B Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) —
B Junior Caminero (TB) —
Unranked Chase Meidroth (CWS) —
Unranked Rafael Devers (SF) —
Lotto Cody Bellinger (NYY) —
A Ben Rice (NYY) —
Lotto A.J. Ewing (NYM) —
Unranked Angel Martínez (CLE) —
B Jake Bauers (MIL) —
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) —
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) —
B Garrett Mitchell (MIL) —
Lotto Dillon Dingler (DET) —
Unranked Max Clark (DET) —
Unranked Alex Bregman (CHC) —
B Bryan Reynolds (PIT) —
Lotto Mickey Gasper (BOS) —
B Matt Olson (ATL) —
B Austin Riley (ATL) —
B Donovan Walton (ATH) —
B Lawrence Butler (ATH) —
Lotto Nolan Arenado (AZ) —
B Corbin Carroll (AZ) —

Hit = the batter homered in a game he actually started/played (benched picks are excluded). Pick a day to see who homered. Updated automatically after games go final.

🔥 Top HR picks — top 35 of 36 ranked batters

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