🏟 MLB HR Prop Research

Fri, Jul 24, 2026 · 15 games · 225 ranked batters · top HR prob 21.3%

⚠️ Research is pre-game (not live). Data pulled · — confirm a game hasn't started before betting.

🔥 Top HR picks — top 35 of 225 ranked batters

#	Player	Team	vs SP	Park	Wx	HR%	Env	Platoon	Barrel%	xwOBA Δ	Tier
1▸	Yordan Álvarez (LHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	21.3%	+5.9%	ADV	18.0%	+0.024	A
A21.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 21.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR3 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 5 (L10) Season HR34 HR xwOBA0.464 Barrel%18.0% Exit velo94.5 mph Hard-hit%53.8% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
2▸	Corbin Carroll (LHB)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	20.7%	+8.8%	DIS	11.7%	-0.004	A
A20.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Strong — 20.7% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.342 Barrel%11.7% Exit velo91.6 mph Hard-hit%48.8% xwOBA Δ-0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
3▸	James Wood (LHB)	WSH	Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	20.4%	+8.8%	DIS	20.8%	+0.024	A
A20.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Strong — 20.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR28 HR xwOBA0.419 Barrel%20.8% Exit velo95.1 mph Hard-hit%57.6% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherEduardo Rodríguez (LHP) ERA2.70 HR/90.82 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.036 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
4▸	Ben Rice (LHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	20.3%	+10.3%	DIS	15.6%	-0.006	A
A20.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Strong — 20.3% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR30 HR xwOBA0.374 Barrel%15.6% Exit velo92.0 mph Hard-hit%47.8% xwOBA Δ-0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
5▸	Byron Buxton (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	20.3%	+18.8%	ADV	17.6%	-0.019	S
S20.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Elite — 20.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV) in a home-run-friendly park. Top of the board. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR25 HR xwOBA0.348 Barrel%17.6% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%47.3% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
6▸	Kyle Schwarber (LHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	20.0%	+10.3%	ADV	17.6%	-0.016	A
A20.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 20.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR33 HR xwOBA0.373 Barrel%17.6% Exit velo93.1 mph Hard-hit%52.0% xwOBA Δ-0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
7▸	Ketel Marte (Switch)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	19.9%	+8.8%	ADV	10.1%	+0.026	A
A19.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.349 Barrel%10.1% Exit velo90.1 mph Hard-hit%42.6% xwOBA Δ+0.026 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
8▸	Paul Goldschmidt (RHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	19.9%	+10.3%	ADV	10.4%	-0.023	A
A19.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.305 Barrel%10.4% Exit velo86.6 mph Hard-hit%36.5% xwOBA Δ-0.023 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
9▸	Hunter Goodman (RHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	19.8%	+0.0%	ADV	16.6%	-0.039	A
A19.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 4 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR31 HR xwOBA0.327 Barrel%16.6% Exit velo90.5 mph Hard-hit%45.9% xwOBA Δ-0.039 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
10▸	Matt Olson (LHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	19.7%	+9.6%	DIS	15.6%	-0.017	B
B19.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.7% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR26 HR xwOBA0.361 Barrel%15.6% Exit velo92.7 mph Hard-hit%50.6% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
11▸	Tyler Soderstrom (LHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	19.6%	+18.8%	ADV	9.6%	-0.019	A
A19.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%9.6% Exit velo90.7 mph Hard-hit%45.8% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
12▸	Michael Harris (LHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	19.6%	+9.6%	DIS	11.3%	-0.001	B
B19.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.6% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR19 HR xwOBA0.349 Barrel%11.3% Exit velo91.0 mph Hard-hit%50.0% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
13▸	Manny Machado (RHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	19.5%	+0.0%	DIS	10.6%	+0.022	B
B19.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.5% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR2 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.329 Barrel%10.6% Exit velo90.7 mph Hard-hit%44.2% xwOBA Δ+0.022 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
14▸	Shohei Ohtani (LHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	19.4%	+9.8%	DIS	16.5%	+0.014	B
B19.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.4% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.408 Barrel%16.5% Exit velo93.4 mph Hard-hit%52.3% xwOBA Δ+0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
15▸	Trea Turner (RHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	19.4%	+10.3%	DIS	6.5%	-0.005	B
B19.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.4% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR2 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.299 Barrel%6.5% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%40.4% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
16▸	Bryce Harper (LHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	19.4%	+10.3%	ADV	11.5%	+0.017	A
A19.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.389 Barrel%11.5% Exit velo90.2 mph Hard-hit%44.5% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
17▸	Shea Langeliers (RHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	19.2%	+18.8%	DIS	14.9%	+0.006	B
B19.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.2% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR23 HR xwOBA0.363 Barrel%14.9% Exit velo91.8 mph Hard-hit%45.6% xwOBA Δ+0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
18▸	Willson Contreras (RHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	19.2%	+10.2%	DIS	14.2%	-0.011	B
B19.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 19.2% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.387 Barrel%14.2% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%46.0% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
19▸	Colson Montgomery (LHB)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	19.1%	+5.9%	ADV	12.4%	-0.011	A
A19.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 19.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR24 HR xwOBA0.309 Barrel%12.4% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%41.5% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
20▸	Curtis Mead (RHB)	WSH	Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	18.6%	+8.8%	ADV	10.8%	-0.012	A
A18.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 18.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.358 Barrel%10.8% Exit velo88.0 mph Hard-hit%42.3% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherEduardo Rodríguez (LHP) ERA2.70 HR/90.82 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.036 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
21▸	Drake Baldwin (LHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	18.4%	+9.6%	DIS	13.9%	+0.021	B
B18.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 18.4% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR19 HR xwOBA0.376 Barrel%13.9% Exit velo91.6 mph Hard-hit%51.2% xwOBA Δ+0.021 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
22▸	Julio Rodríguez (RHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	18.3%	+0.0%	ADV	8.8%	+0.025	A
A18.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 18.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.351 Barrel%8.8% Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%42.9% xwOBA Δ+0.025 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
23▸	Esmerlyn Valdez (RHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	18.2%	+9.9%	ADV	24.4%	-0.049	A
A18.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 18.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 7 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.350 Barrel%24.4% Exit velo91.8 mph Hard-hit%50.0% xwOBA Δ-0.049 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
24▸	Pete Alonso (RHB)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	18.2%	+9.6%	DIS	13.9%	+0.032	B
B18.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 18.2% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.385 Barrel%13.9% Exit velo94.1 mph Hard-hit%56.0% xwOBA Δ+0.032 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
25▸	Joc Pederson (LHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	18.0%	+0.0%	ADV	11.3%	-0.008	A
A18.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 18.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.351 Barrel%11.3% Exit velo92.0 mph Hard-hit%49.8% xwOBA Δ-0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
26▸	Sam Antonacci (LHB)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	17.6%	+5.9%	ADV	6.1%	+0.007	A
A17.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 17.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.352 Barrel%6.1% Exit velo87.6 mph Hard-hit%36.0% xwOBA Δ+0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
27▸	Munetaka Murakami (LHB)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	17.6%	+5.9%	ADV	20.6%	-0.020	A
A17.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 17.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR20 HR xwOBA0.365 Barrel%20.6% Exit velo94.1 mph Hard-hit%58.9% xwOBA Δ-0.020 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
28▸	Brandon Marsh (LHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	17.4%	+10.3%	ADV	8.4%	-0.012	A
A17.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 17.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.312 Barrel%8.4% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%45.5% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
29▸	Dillon Dingler (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	17.2%	+11.1%	DIS	11.3%	+0.003	B
B17.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 17.2% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.373 Barrel%11.3% Exit velo89.0 mph Hard-hit%44.3% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
30▸	Kazuma Okamoto (RHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	17.1%	+10.2%	ADV	12.5%	-0.014	A
A17.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 17.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%12.5% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%43.8% xwOBA Δ-0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
31▸	Christian Walker (RHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	17.0%	+5.9%	DIS	9.5%	-0.027	B
B17.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 17.0% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR20 HR xwOBA0.308 Barrel%9.5% Exit velo89.5 mph Hard-hit%42.3% xwOBA Δ-0.027 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
32▸	Seiya Suzuki (RHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	16.9%	+9.9%	DIS	9.9%	-0.028	B
B16.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 16.9% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.332 Barrel%9.9% Exit velo88.8 mph Hard-hit%38.7% xwOBA Δ-0.028 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
33▸	Wyatt Langford (RHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	16.8%	+0.0%	DIS	8.1%	-0.039	B
B16.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 16.8% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.307 Barrel%8.1% Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%38.1% xwOBA Δ-0.039 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
34▸	Pete Crow-Armstrong (LHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	16.6%	+9.9%	ADV	12.3%	-0.033	A
A16.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 16.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.365 Barrel%12.3% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%49.4% xwOBA Δ-0.033 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
35▸	Ozzie Albies (Switch)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	16.6%	+9.6%	ADV	4.3%	-0.035	A
A16.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 16.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.286 Barrel%4.3% Exit velo86.8 mph Hard-hit%28.3% xwOBA Δ-0.035 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
36▸	Jackson Chourio (RHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	16.5%	+0.0%	DIS	14.0%	-0.010	B
B16.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 16.5% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.345 Barrel%14.0% Exit velo92.3 mph Hard-hit%48.2% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
37▸	Mickey Moniak (LHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	16.3%	+0.0%	DIS	11.2%	-0.068	B
B16.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 16.3% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.302 Barrel%11.2% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%41.7% xwOBA Δ-0.068 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
38▸	Cal Raleigh (Switch)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	16.2%	+0.0%	ADV	13.1%	+0.034	A
A16.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 16.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.295 Barrel%13.1% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%34.3% xwOBA Δ+0.034 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
39▸	Junior Caminero (RHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	16.2%	+0.0%	ADV	13.8%	-0.015	A
A16.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Strong — 16.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR29 HR xwOBA0.373 Barrel%13.8% Exit velo93.1 mph Hard-hit%50.8% xwOBA Δ-0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
40▸	Jacob Wilson (RHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	16.0%	+18.8%	DIS	2.5%	-0.019	B
B16.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 16.0% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR2 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.284 Barrel%2.5% Exit velo84.2 mph Hard-hit%27.8% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
41▸	Dominic Canzone (LHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	15.8%	+0.0%	DIS	13.4%	+0.014	B
B15.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.8% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.363 Barrel%13.4% Exit velo91.7 mph Hard-hit%45.8% xwOBA Δ+0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
42▸	Ceddanne Rafaela (RHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	15.8%	+10.2%	DIS	5.4%	-0.056	B
B15.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.8% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.287 Barrel%5.4% Exit velo86.6 mph Hard-hit%32.8% xwOBA Δ-0.056 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
43▸	Riley Greene (LHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	15.7%	+11.1%	ADV	14.6%	+0.007	B
B15.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.362 Barrel%14.6% Exit velo90.5 mph Hard-hit%48.3% xwOBA Δ+0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
44▸	Andy Pages (RHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	15.5%	+9.8%	ADV	7.6%	-0.008	B
B15.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.337 Barrel%7.6% Exit velo89.1 mph Hard-hit%42.9% xwOBA Δ-0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
45▸	Sal Stewart (RHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	15.4%	+8.0%	DIS	13.6%	-0.001	B
B15.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.4% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.345 Barrel%13.6% Exit velo90.4 mph Hard-hit%39.5% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
46▸	CJ Abrams (LHB)	WSH	Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	15.3%	+8.8%	DIS	10.6%	-0.037	B
B15.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.3% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR3 (L3) · 4 (L5) · 5 (L10) Season HR24 HR xwOBA0.348 Barrel%10.6% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%42.3% xwOBA Δ-0.037 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherEduardo Rodríguez (LHP) ERA2.70 HR/90.82 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.036 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
47▸	Caleb Durbin (RHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	15.3%	+10.2%	DIS	2.8%	-0.031	B
B15.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.3% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.288 Barrel%2.8% Exit velo84.1 mph Hard-hit%27.4% xwOBA Δ-0.031 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
48▸	Randy Arozarena (RHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	15.2%	+0.0%	ADV	8.0%	-0.007	B
B15.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.352 Barrel%8.0% Exit velo91.0 mph Hard-hit%42.7% xwOBA Δ-0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
49▸	Austin Riley (RHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	15.2%	+9.6%	ADV	11.4%	+0.001	B
B15.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.296 Barrel%11.4% Exit velo90.9 mph Hard-hit%44.3% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
50▸	Luis García (LHB)	WSH	Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	15.1%	+8.8%	DIS	12.1%	-0.013	B
B15.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.1% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#8 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.353 Barrel%12.1% Exit velo91.5 mph Hard-hit%45.4% xwOBA Δ-0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherEduardo Rodríguez (LHP) ERA2.70 HR/90.82 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.036 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
51▸	Fernando Tatís (RHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	15.0%	+0.0%	DIS	11.4%	+0.024	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.358 Barrel%11.4% Exit velo92.3 mph Hard-hit%52.4% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
52▸	George Springer (RHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	15.0%	+10.2%	ADV	7.1%	-0.009	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.306 Barrel%7.1% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%38.7% xwOBA Δ-0.009 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
53▸	Garrett Mitchell (LHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	15.0%	+0.0%	ADV	13.2%	+0.012	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.349 Barrel%13.2% Exit velo92.9 mph Hard-hit%51.1% xwOBA Δ+0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
54▸	Rafael Devers (LHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	15.0%	-1.4%	ADV	11.0%	-0.014	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR20 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%11.0% Exit velo92.5 mph Hard-hit%51.1% xwOBA Δ-0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
55▸	Spencer Torkelson (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	15.0%	+11.1%	DIS	13.1%	-0.003	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR19 HR xwOBA0.321 Barrel%13.1% Exit velo89.5 mph Hard-hit%41.9% xwOBA Δ-0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
56▸	Dylan Beavers (LHB)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	15.0%	+9.6%	ADV	5.7%	+0.013	B
B15.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 15.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.307 Barrel%5.7% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%39.0% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
57▸	Carlos Cortes (LHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	14.7%	+18.8%	ADV	7.0%	-0.004	B
B14.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.324 Barrel%7.0% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%38.2% xwOBA Δ-0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
58▸	Kyle Stowers (LHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	14.6%	+0.0%	ADV	11.4%	-0.010	B
B14.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%11.4% Exit velo92.1 mph Hard-hit%55.0% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
59▸	Heriberto Hernandez (RHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	14.6%	+0.0%	DIS	11.9%	+0.017	B
B14.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 14.6% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.339 Barrel%11.9% Exit velo91.7 mph Hard-hit%49.8% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
60▸	Royce Lewis (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	14.5%	+18.8%	ADV	12.5%	-0.002	B
B14.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.320 Barrel%12.5% Exit velo90.1 mph Hard-hit%43.3% xwOBA Δ-0.002 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
61▸	Ryan Jeffers (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	14.5%	+18.8%	ADV	11.1%	-0.020	B
B14.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.366 Barrel%11.1% Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%40.7% xwOBA Δ-0.020 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
62▸	Trent Grisham (LHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	14.5%	+10.3%	DIS	10.2%	+0.032	B
B14.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 14.5% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.341 Barrel%10.2% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%44.7% xwOBA Δ+0.032 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
63▸	Michael Busch (LHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	14.3%	+9.9%	ADV	9.3%	-0.001	B
B14.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.336 Barrel%9.3% Exit velo88.2 mph Hard-hit%39.4% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
64▸	J. T. Realmuto (RHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	14.3%	+10.3%	DIS	4.8%	+0.030	B
B14.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 14.3% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.323 Barrel%4.8% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%40.4% xwOBA Δ+0.030 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
65▸	Francisco Lindor (Switch)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	14.3%	+9.8%	ADV	9.9%	+0.017	B
B14.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.353 Barrel%9.9% Exit velo91.5 mph Hard-hit%49.2% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
66▸	Gunnar Henderson (LHB)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	14.3%	+9.6%	ADV	7.0%	+0.013	B
B14.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.310 Barrel%7.0% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%45.1% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
67▸	Cody Bellinger (LHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	14.2%	+10.3%	DIS	6.1%	+0.011	B
B14.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Moderate — 14.2% HR probability, tilted down a notch by a same-handed matchup (DIS). Verify the pitcher's actual L/R splits — a reverse split would soften that and lift this. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.350 Barrel%6.1% Exit velo89.1 mph Hard-hit%37.3% xwOBA Δ+0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
68▸	Bryan Reynolds (Switch)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	14.2%	+9.9%	ADV	11.1%	-0.011	B
B14.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.351 Barrel%11.1% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%46.3% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
69▸	Jackson Merrill (LHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	14.1%	+0.0%	ADV	11.7%	+0.022	B
B14.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 14.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR2 (L3) · 4 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%11.7% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%46.9% xwOBA Δ+0.022 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
70▸	David Fry (RHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	13.9%	+0.0%	ADV	6.5%	-0.031	B
B13.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.258 Barrel%6.5% Exit velo85.5 mph Hard-hit%32.6% xwOBA Δ-0.031 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
71▸	Mookie Betts (RHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	13.9%	+9.8%	ADV	7.2%	+0.031	B
B13.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%7.2% Exit velo90.4 mph Hard-hit%38.4% xwOBA Δ+0.031 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
72▸	Lucas Spence (LHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	13.8%	+5.9%	ADV	4.5%	+0.028	B
B13.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.236 Barrel%4.5% Exit velo92.7 mph Hard-hit%40.9% xwOBA Δ+0.028 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
73▸	Isaac Paredes (RHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	13.8%	+5.9%	DIS	5.4%	-0.017	Lotto
Lotto13.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.8% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.323 Barrel%5.4% Exit velo86.2 mph Hard-hit%29.2% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
74▸	Elly De La Cruz (Switch)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	13.7%	+8.0%	ADV	14.0%	-0.001	B
B13.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.367 Barrel%14.0% Exit velo93.7 mph Hard-hit%51.1% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
75▸	Kyle Karros (RHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	13.7%	+0.0%	ADV	7.7%	-0.005	B
B13.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.338 Barrel%7.7% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%41.7% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
76▸	Mitch Garver (RHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	13.7%	+0.0%	ADV	9.1%	+0.023	B
B13.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.301 Barrel%9.1% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%48.1% xwOBA Δ+0.023 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
77▸	Josh Bell (Switch)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	13.7%	+18.8%	ADV	10.4%	+0.004	B
B13.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.328 Barrel%10.4% Exit velo90.0 mph Hard-hit%41.8% xwOBA Δ+0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
78▸	Ian Happ (Switch)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	13.6%	+9.9%	ADV	11.6%	-0.017	B
B13.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.310 Barrel%11.6% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%41.9% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
79▸	Dansby Swanson (RHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	13.6%	+9.9%	DIS	7.1%	-0.003	Lotto
Lotto13.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.6% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.299 Barrel%7.1% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%40.5% xwOBA Δ-0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
80▸	Rhys Hoskins (RHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	13.5%	+0.0%	ADV	13.1%	-0.012	B
B13.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.299 Barrel%13.1% Exit velo89.2 mph Hard-hit%41.3% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
81▸	Jordan Walker (RHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	13.3%	+8.0%	DIS	13.3%	-0.004	Lotto
Lotto13.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.3% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR22 HR xwOBA0.355 Barrel%13.3% Exit velo92.7 mph Hard-hit%47.6% xwOBA Δ-0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
82▸	Cam Smith (RHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	13.3%	+5.9%	DIS	11.7%	+0.024	Lotto
Lotto13.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.3% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.330 Barrel%11.7% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%45.2% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
83▸	Alex Bregman (RHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	13.2%	+9.9%	DIS	4.2%	-0.012	Lotto
Lotto13.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.2% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.308 Barrel%4.2% Exit velo88.2 mph Hard-hit%37.4% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
84▸	Dylan Crews (RHB)	WSH	Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	13.1%	+8.8%	ADV	10.2%	+0.029	B
B13.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.323 Barrel%10.2% Exit velo90.7 mph Hard-hit%44.1% xwOBA Δ+0.029 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherEduardo Rodríguez (LHP) ERA2.70 HR/90.82 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.036 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
85▸	Mike Trout (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	13.0%	-1.4%	DIS	17.1%	+0.027	Lotto
Lotto13.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.0% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.390 Barrel%17.1% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%47.8% xwOBA Δ+0.027 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
86▸	Jake Bauers (LHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	13.0%	+0.0%	ADV	13.9%	-0.012	B
B13.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.368 Barrel%13.9% Exit velo92.8 mph Hard-hit%53.6% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
87▸	Freddie Freeman (LHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	13.0%	+9.8%	DIS	9.0%	+0.007	Lotto
Lotto13.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 13.0% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.380 Barrel%9.0% Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%43.0% xwOBA Δ+0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
88▸	Joe Mack (LHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	13.0%	+0.0%	ADV	9.7%	+0.000	B
B13.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 13.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#9 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.312 Barrel%9.7% Exit velo88.6 mph Hard-hit%40.0% xwOBA Δ+0.000 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
89▸	Jake Burger (RHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	12.9%	+0.0%	DIS	10.8%	-0.014	Lotto
Lotto12.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.298 Barrel%10.8% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%46.5% xwOBA Δ-0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
90▸	Willy Adames (RHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	12.9%	-1.4%	DIS	8.5%	-0.011	Lotto
Lotto12.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 4 (L10) Season HR18 HR xwOBA0.290 Barrel%8.5% Exit velo87.4 mph Hard-hit%38.4% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
91▸	Chase DeLauter (LHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	12.9%	+0.0%	DIS	6.3%	+0.000	Lotto
Lotto12.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.346 Barrel%6.3% Exit velo91.2 mph Hard-hit%46.1% xwOBA Δ+0.000 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
92▸	Hao-Yu Lee (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	12.9%	+11.1%	DIS	8.8%	-0.023	Lotto
Lotto12.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.289 Barrel%8.8% Exit velo89.0 mph Hard-hit%39.5% xwOBA Δ-0.023 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
93▸	Vladimir Guerrero (RHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	12.8%	+10.2%	ADV	6.7%	+0.026	B
B12.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.334 Barrel%6.7% Exit velo90.1 mph Hard-hit%43.3% xwOBA Δ+0.026 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
94▸	Braden Montgomery (Switch)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	12.8%	+5.9%	ADV	3.7%	-0.002	B
B12.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.311 Barrel%3.7% Exit velo89.2 mph Hard-hit%40.7% xwOBA Δ-0.002 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
95▸	Teoscar Hernández (RHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	12.8%	+9.8%	ADV	9.0%	+0.001	B
B12.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.313 Barrel%9.0% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%41.9% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
96▸	Adrian Del Castillo (LHB)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	12.8%	+8.8%	DIS	6.4%	+0.006	Lotto
Lotto12.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.8% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#8 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.260 Barrel%6.4% Exit velo88.4 mph Hard-hit%36.8% xwOBA Δ+0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
97▸	William Contreras (RHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	12.7%	+0.0%	DIS	7.5%	+0.016	Lotto
Lotto12.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.7% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%7.5% Exit velo89.8 mph Hard-hit%42.8% xwOBA Δ+0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
98▸	Wilyer Abreu (LHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	12.7%	+10.2%	ADV	12.8%	+0.014	B
B12.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 5 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.352 Barrel%12.8% Exit velo90.0 mph Hard-hit%43.0% xwOBA Δ+0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
99▸	Brandon Nimmo (LHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	12.7%	+0.0%	ADV	11.2%	+0.028	B
B12.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.373 Barrel%11.2% Exit velo92.1 mph Hard-hit%51.8% xwOBA Δ+0.028 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
100▸	Nathaniel Lowe (LHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	12.6%	+8.0%	ADV	9.5%	-0.008	B
B12.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR2 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.348 Barrel%9.5% Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%42.9% xwOBA Δ-0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
101▸	Gabriel Moreno (RHB)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	12.6%	+8.8%	ADV	6.9%	+0.004	B
B12.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.371 Barrel%6.9% Exit velo89.2 mph Hard-hit%42.2% xwOBA Δ+0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
102▸	Casey Schmitt (RHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	12.6%	-1.4%	DIS	12.3%	+0.020	Lotto
Lotto12.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.6% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR20 HR xwOBA0.355 Barrel%12.3% Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%44.8% xwOBA Δ+0.020 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
103▸	Heliot Ramos (RHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	12.6%	-1.4%	DIS	13.4%	+0.015	Lotto
Lotto12.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.6% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.326 Barrel%13.4% Exit velo92.2 mph Hard-hit%49.3% xwOBA Δ+0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
104▸	Marcell Ozuna (RHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	12.4%	+9.9%	ADV	7.6%	+0.029	B
B12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%7.6% Exit velo89.1 mph Hard-hit%36.8% xwOBA Δ+0.029 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
105▸	Tommy White (RHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	12.4%	+18.8%	DIS	4.4%	+0.037	Lotto
Lotto12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.282 Barrel%4.4% Exit velo85.6 mph Hard-hit%33.8% xwOBA Δ+0.037 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
106▸	Christian Yelich (LHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	12.4%	+0.0%	ADV	9.5%	-0.005	B
B12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.300 Barrel%9.5% Exit velo88.6 mph Hard-hit%41.9% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
107▸	Christian Encarnacion-Strand (RHB)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	12.4%	+9.6%	DIS	21.4%	+0.048	Lotto
Lotto12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.370 Barrel%21.4% Exit velo93.0 mph Hard-hit%40.5% xwOBA Δ+0.048 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
108▸	Leody Taveras (Switch)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	12.4%	+9.6%	ADV	4.7%	-0.013	B
B12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.281 Barrel%4.7% Exit velo87.7 mph Hard-hit%30.9% xwOBA Δ-0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
109▸	Zach Neto (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	12.4%	-1.4%	DIS	11.8%	-0.019	Lotto
Lotto12.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR19 HR xwOBA0.298 Barrel%11.8% Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%39.9% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
110▸	Joey Bart (RHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	12.3%	+9.6%	ADV	7.7%	-0.003	B
B12.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.295 Barrel%7.7% Exit velo85.8 mph Hard-hit%34.6% xwOBA Δ-0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
111▸	Bryce Eldridge (LHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	12.2%	-1.4%	ADV	11.6%	+0.008	B
B12.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.346 Barrel%11.6% Exit velo92.1 mph Hard-hit%51.3% xwOBA Δ+0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
112▸	Willi Castro (Switch)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	12.0%	+0.0%	ADV	8.8%	-0.024	B
B12.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 12.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.309 Barrel%8.8% Exit velo87.6 mph Hard-hit%39.4% xwOBA Δ-0.024 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
113▸	Jeremy Peña (RHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	12.0%	+5.9%	DIS	5.4%	-0.019	Lotto
Lotto12.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 12.0% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR3 (L3) · 3 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.345 Barrel%5.4% Exit velo88.4 mph Hard-hit%41.7% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
114▸	A. J. Ewing (LHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	11.8%	+9.8%	ADV	7.6%	+0.001	B
B11.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.323 Barrel%7.6% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%43.3% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
115▸	Carter Jensen (LHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	11.7%	+11.1%	DIS	9.8%	-0.030	Lotto
Lotto11.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.7% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.282 Barrel%9.8% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%43.4% xwOBA Δ-0.030 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
116▸	Jeff McNeil (LHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	11.7%	+18.8%	ADV	1.1%	+0.016	B
B11.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.303 Barrel%1.1% Exit velo86.3 mph Hard-hit%31.2% xwOBA Δ+0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
117▸	Otto Lopez (RHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	11.7%	+0.0%	DIS	6.2%	-0.029	Lotto
Lotto11.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.7% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%6.2% Exit velo89.1 mph Hard-hit%41.2% xwOBA Δ-0.029 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
118▸	Andruw Monasterio (RHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	11.4%	+10.2%	DIS	8.6%	-0.022	Lotto
Lotto11.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.315 Barrel%8.6% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%36.6% xwOBA Δ-0.022 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
119▸	Brandon Lowe (LHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	11.3%	+9.9%	DIS	12.4%	-0.015	Lotto
Lotto11.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.3% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%12.4% Exit velo91.1 mph Hard-hit%45.4% xwOBA Δ-0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
120▸	Ezequiel Tovar (RHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	11.2%	+0.0%	ADV	6.2%	+0.017	B
B11.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.271 Barrel%6.2% Exit velo87.4 mph Hard-hit%33.6% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
121▸	Jasson Domínguez (Switch)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	11.2%	+10.3%	ADV	5.2%	+0.003	B
B11.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.288 Barrel%5.2% Exit velo88.0 mph Hard-hit%39.0% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
122▸	Gabriel Arias (RHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	11.2%	+0.0%	ADV	9.9%	-0.019	B
B11.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.267 Barrel%9.9% Exit velo90.2 mph Hard-hit%43.7% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
123▸	Luis Robert (RHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	11.2%	+9.8%	DIS	4.8%	+0.014	Lotto
Lotto11.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.2% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.295 Barrel%4.8% Exit velo88.8 mph Hard-hit%38.5% xwOBA Δ+0.014 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
124▸	Francisco Álvarez (RHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	11.1%	+9.8%	DIS	16.8%	+0.003	Lotto
Lotto11.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.1% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.348 Barrel%16.8% Exit velo90.1 mph Hard-hit%44.3% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
125▸	Kyle Tucker (LHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	11.1%	+9.8%	DIS	6.4%	+0.013	Lotto
Lotto11.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.1% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.337 Barrel%6.4% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%38.5% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
126▸	Anthony Seigler (Switch)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	11.1%	+10.2%	ADV	6.1%	-0.003	B
B11.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 11.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.310 Barrel%6.1% Exit velo87.3 mph Hard-hit%35.1% xwOBA Δ-0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
127▸	Miguel Vargas (RHB)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	11.0%	+5.9%	DIS	14.0%	+0.029	Lotto
Lotto11.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 11.0% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR21 HR xwOBA0.380 Barrel%14.0% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%45.6% xwOBA Δ+0.029 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
128▸	Jorge Soler (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	10.9%	-1.4%	DIS	10.9%	+0.000	Lotto
Lotto10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.294 Barrel%10.9% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%42.6% xwOBA Δ+0.000 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
129▸	Dalton Rushing (LHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	10.9%	+9.8%	DIS	12.2%	-0.012	Lotto
Lotto10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#9 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.340 Barrel%12.2% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%44.6% xwOBA Δ-0.012 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
130▸	Spencer Steer (RHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	10.9%	+8.0%	DIS	11.7%	+0.017	Lotto
Lotto10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.9% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.342 Barrel%11.7% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%39.1% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
131▸	Pedro Ramírez (Switch)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	10.9%	+9.9%	ADV	2.2%	-0.043	B
B10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.298 Barrel%2.2% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%42.4% xwOBA Δ-0.043 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
132▸	Miguel Rojas (RHB)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	10.9%	+9.8%	ADV	5.9%	-0.001	B
B10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.319 Barrel%5.9% Exit velo87.0 mph Hard-hit%36.6% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
133▸	Lane Thomas (RHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	10.9%	+11.1%	ADV	6.5%	-0.002	B
B10.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.314 Barrel%6.5% Exit velo89.5 mph Hard-hit%42.1% xwOBA Δ-0.002 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
134▸	Austin Martin (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	10.8%	+18.8%	ADV	3.2%	-0.001	B
B10.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.314 Barrel%3.2% Exit velo87.1 mph Hard-hit%29.3% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
135▸	Cole Carrigg (Switch)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	10.8%	+0.0%	ADV	5.2%	-0.039	B
B10.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.332 Barrel%5.2% Exit velo86.7 mph Hard-hit%32.1% xwOBA Δ-0.039 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
136▸	Ali Sánchez (RHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	10.7%	+10.3%	ADV	2.4%	-0.010	B
B10.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.280 Barrel%2.4% Exit velo82.9 mph Hard-hit%26.2% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
137▸	Daulton Varsho (LHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	10.7%	+10.2%	DIS	6.4%	-0.001	Lotto
Lotto10.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.7% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.294 Barrel%6.4% Exit velo86.4 mph Hard-hit%37.6% xwOBA Δ-0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
138▸	Liam Hicks (LHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	10.7%	+0.0%	ADV	3.8%	-0.041	B
B10.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.311 Barrel%3.8% Exit velo85.0 mph Hard-hit%28.3% xwOBA Δ-0.041 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
139▸	Salvador Pérez (RHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	10.7%	+11.1%	ADV	9.6%	+0.024	B
B10.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.297 Barrel%9.6% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%42.1% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
140▸	Cole Young (LHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	10.6%	+0.0%	DIS	5.0%	+0.008	Lotto
Lotto10.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.6% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%5.0% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%39.0% xwOBA Δ+0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
141▸	Jo Adell (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	10.6%	-1.4%	DIS	8.8%	+0.028	Lotto
Lotto10.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.6% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%8.8% Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%44.1% xwOBA Δ+0.028 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
142▸	Geraldo Perdomo (Switch)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	10.5%	+8.8%	ADV	3.3%	-0.003	B
B10.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.327 Barrel%3.3% Exit velo87.2 mph Hard-hit%29.9% xwOBA Δ-0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
143▸	Tyler Stephenson (RHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	10.5%	+8.0%	DIS	12.4%	+0.023	Lotto
Lotto10.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.5% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.350 Barrel%12.4% Exit velo91.2 mph Hard-hit%46.0% xwOBA Δ+0.023 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
144▸	Tommy Edman (Switch)	LAD	Sean Manaea (LHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	10.5%	+9.8%	ADV	6.2%	-0.008	B
B10.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.327 Barrel%6.2% Exit velo88.6 mph Hard-hit%37.2% xwOBA Δ-0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSean Manaea (LHP) ERA4.13 HR/91.20 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.013 Barrel% allowed9.3% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
145▸	Mauricio Dubón (RHB)	ATL	Trevor Rogers (LHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	10.5%	+9.6%	ADV	4.1%	-0.005	B
B10.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.310 Barrel%4.1% Exit velo86.9 mph Hard-hit%30.7% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrevor Rogers (LHP) ERA4.21 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.002 Barrel% allowed7.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
146▸	Troy Johnston (LHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	10.4%	+0.0%	DIS	1.9%	-0.006	Lotto
Lotto10.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.321 Barrel%1.9% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%37.2% xwOBA Δ-0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
147▸	Colt Emerson (LHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	10.4%	+0.0%	DIS	5.0%	-0.009	Lotto
Lotto10.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.4% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.255 Barrel%5.0% Exit velo86.8 mph Hard-hit%31.4% xwOBA Δ-0.009 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
148▸	Jared Young (LHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	10.1%	+9.8%	ADV	8.7%	-0.010	B
B10.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.329 Barrel%8.7% Exit velo90.3 mph Hard-hit%49.1% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
149▸	Lawrence Butler (LHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	10.1%	+18.8%	ADV	6.8%	+0.024	B
B10.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Moderate — 10.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%6.8% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%44.3% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
150▸	Marcus Semien (RHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	10.0%	+9.8%	DIS	7.2%	+0.027	Lotto
Lotto10.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Longshot — 10.0% HR probability with a same-handed matchup (DIS); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.306 Barrel%7.2% Exit velo86.6 mph Hard-hit%35.7% xwOBA Δ+0.027 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
151▸	Carson Benge (LHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	9.9%	+9.8%	ADV	7.6%	+0.016	Lotto
Lotto9.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.344 Barrel%7.6% Exit velo89.4 mph Hard-hit%40.9% xwOBA Δ+0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
152▸	Evan Carter (LHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	9.7%	+0.0%	ADV	5.7%	+0.003	Lotto
Lotto9.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.291 Barrel%5.7% Exit velo87.4 mph Hard-hit%36.4% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
153▸	Luke Keaschall (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	9.7%	+18.8%	ADV	3.2%	-0.015	Lotto
Lotto9.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.307 Barrel%3.2% Exit velo84.5 mph Hard-hit%28.3% xwOBA Δ-0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
154▸	Christian Vázquez (RHB)	HOU	Davis Martin (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	9.6%	+5.9%	DIS	1.2%	-0.026	Fade
Fade9.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.6% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.234 Barrel%1.2% Exit velo85.8 mph Hard-hit%23.0% xwOBA Δ-0.026 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDavis Martin (RHP) ERA4.17 HR/90.73 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.012 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
155▸	Ernie Clement (RHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	9.5%	+10.2%	ADV	2.5%	-0.045	Lotto
Lotto9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.267 Barrel%2.5% Exit velo84.8 mph Hard-hit%21.1% xwOBA Δ-0.045 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
156▸	Jonathan Aranda (LHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	9.5%	+0.0%	DIS	9.9%	+0.000	Fade
Fade9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.5% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.356 Barrel%9.9% Exit velo90.9 mph Hard-hit%45.3% xwOBA Δ+0.000 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
157▸	Ryan Kreidler (RHB)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	9.5%	+18.8%	ADV	7.8%	-0.002	Lotto
Lotto9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.293 Barrel%7.8% Exit velo87.7 mph Hard-hit%36.6% xwOBA Δ-0.002 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
158▸	Bo Bichette (RHB)	NYM	Roki Sasaki (RHP)	Citi Field	76° ⛅ 11 ↑	9.5%	+9.8%	DIS	5.9%	+0.016	Fade
Fade9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.5% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.319 Barrel%5.9% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%40.1% xwOBA Δ+0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRoki Sasaki (RHP) ERA4.54 HR/91.80 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.024 Barrel% allowed10.5% 🌤 Environment ParkCiti Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+9.8% Temp76°F Wind11 mph SSE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) Precip0%
159▸	Alec Bohm (RHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	9.5%	+10.3%	DIS	5.0%	+0.020	Fade
Fade9.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.5% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.306 Barrel%5.0% Exit velo90.5 mph Hard-hit%41.7% xwOBA Δ+0.020 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
160▸	Ryan O'Hearn (LHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	9.4%	+9.9%	DIS	7.2%	-0.022	Fade
Fade9.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.4% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR16 HR xwOBA0.321 Barrel%7.2% Exit velo89.3 mph Hard-hit%43.5% xwOBA Δ-0.022 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
161▸	Javier Sanoja (RHB)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	9.3%	+0.0%	DIS	2.2%	-0.038	Fade
Fade9.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.3% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.278 Barrel%2.2% Exit velo86.7 mph Hard-hit%31.2% xwOBA Δ-0.038 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
162▸	Gleyber Torres (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	9.3%	+11.1%	DIS	7.4%	-0.015	Fade
Fade9.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.3% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.326 Barrel%7.4% Exit velo86.0 mph Hard-hit%31.8% xwOBA Δ-0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
163▸	Lars Nootbaar (LHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	9.3%	+8.0%	ADV	8.8%	+0.027	Lotto
Lotto9.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.328 Barrel%8.8% Exit velo91.7 mph Hard-hit%49.3% xwOBA Δ+0.027 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
164▸	Yandy Díaz (RHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	9.2%	+0.0%	ADV	6.9%	-0.005	Lotto
Lotto9.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 9.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.358 Barrel%6.9% Exit velo91.0 mph Hard-hit%48.0% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
165▸	Ben Malgeri (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	9.2%	+11.1%	DIS	3.0%	-0.043	Fade
Fade9.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.2% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.320 Barrel%3.0% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%39.4% xwOBA Δ-0.043 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
166▸	Taylor Ward (RHB)	BAL	Grant Holmes (RHP)	Oriole Park at Cam	77° ⛅ 8 ↖	9.1%	+9.6%	DIS	5.8%	+0.013	Fade
Fade9.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.1% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.342 Barrel%5.8% Exit velo88.9 mph Hard-hit%38.4% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrant Holmes (RHP) ERA3.47 HR/91.42 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.017 Barrel% allowed9.1% 🌤 Environment ParkOriole Park at Camden Yards Park HR factor104 Env HR impact+9.6% Temp77°F Wind8 mph ESE CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
167▸	Petey Halpin (LHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	9.0%	+0.0%	DIS	6.4%	+0.028	Fade
Fade9.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.0% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.277 Barrel%6.4% Exit velo85.3 mph Hard-hit%25.5% xwOBA Δ+0.028 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
168▸	Josh Naylor (LHB)	SEA	MacKenzie Gore (LHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	9.0%	+0.0%	DIS	4.8%	+0.011	Fade
Fade9.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 9.0% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.322 Barrel%4.8% Exit velo87.8 mph Hard-hit%36.6% xwOBA Δ+0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMacKenzie Gore (LHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.14 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.005 Barrel% allowed9.0% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
169▸	Michael Massey (LHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	8.9%	+11.1%	DIS	5.9%	-0.016	Fade
Fade8.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.293 Barrel%5.9% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%40.6% xwOBA Δ-0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
170▸	Ezequiel Duran (RHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	8.9%	+0.0%	DIS	6.2%	-0.029	Fade
Fade8.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.306 Barrel%6.2% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%36.0% xwOBA Δ-0.029 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
171▸	Colt Keith (LHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	8.9%	+11.1%	ADV	7.2%	+0.008	Lotto
Lotto8.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%7.2% Exit velo88.6 mph Hard-hit%41.2% xwOBA Δ+0.008 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
172▸	Brice Turang (LHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	8.8%	+0.0%	ADV	8.2%	-0.011	Lotto
Lotto8.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.345 Barrel%8.2% Exit velo90.6 mph Hard-hit%42.9% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
173▸	Chase Meidroth (RHB)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	8.8%	+5.9%	DIS	4.7%	-0.038	Fade
Fade8.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.8% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.297 Barrel%4.7% Exit velo87.8 mph Hard-hit%34.9% xwOBA Δ-0.038 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
174▸	JJ Bleday (LHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	8.7%	+8.0%	ADV	10.6%	+0.011	Lotto
Lotto8.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR17 HR xwOBA0.359 Barrel%10.6% Exit velo88.7 mph Hard-hit%40.9% xwOBA Δ+0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
175▸	Nick Fortes (RHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	8.7%	+0.0%	ADV	2.3%	-0.021	Lotto
Lotto8.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.7% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR2 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.284 Barrel%2.3% Exit velo85.5 mph Hard-hit%35.3% xwOBA Δ-0.021 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
176▸	Nick Gonzales (RHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	8.6%	+9.9%	ADV	2.8%	-0.017	Lotto
Lotto8.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#2 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.320 Barrel%2.8% Exit velo86.3 mph Hard-hit%35.0% xwOBA Δ-0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
177▸	Jake McCarthy (LHB)	COL	Shane Drohan (LHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	8.6%	+0.0%	DIS	5.1%	-0.047	Fade
Fade8.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.6% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.321 Barrel%5.1% Exit velo85.2 mph Hard-hit%27.3% xwOBA Δ-0.047 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane Drohan (LHP) ERA3.87 HR/90.87 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.016 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
178▸	Sung Mun Song (LHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	8.3%	+0.0%	ADV	4.4%	-0.009	Lotto
Lotto8.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.266 Barrel%4.4% Exit velo86.9 mph Hard-hit%24.4% xwOBA Δ-0.009 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
179▸	Jarren Duran (LHB)	BOS	Trey Yesavage (RHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	8.3%	+10.2%	ADV	9.9%	+0.029	Lotto
Lotto8.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR13 HR xwOBA0.296 Barrel%9.9% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%39.1% xwOBA Δ+0.029 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTrey Yesavage (RHP) ERA3.65 HR/90.96 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.005 Barrel% allowed6.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
180▸	Matt Vierling (RHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	8.2%	+11.1%	DIS	4.9%	+0.046	Fade
Fade8.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.2% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%4.9% Exit velo87.9 mph Hard-hit%37.2% xwOBA Δ+0.046 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
181▸	Tyler Tolbert (RHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	8.2%	+11.1%	ADV	4.0%	-0.052	Lotto
Lotto8.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.308 Barrel%4.0% Exit velo85.3 mph Hard-hit%29.3% xwOBA Δ-0.052 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
182▸	JJ Wetherholt (LHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	8.2%	+8.0%	ADV	7.5%	+0.024	Lotto
Lotto8.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.354 Barrel%7.5% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%44.2% xwOBA Δ+0.024 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
183▸	Anthony Volpe (RHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	8.1%	+10.3%	ADV	3.9%	-0.004	Lotto
Lotto8.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 8.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.290 Barrel%3.9% Exit velo87.8 mph Hard-hit%35.4% xwOBA Δ-0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
184▸	Elías Díaz (RHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	8.0%	+0.0%	DIS	5.5%	-0.031	Fade
Fade8.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.0% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.258 Barrel%5.5% Exit velo86.4 mph Hard-hit%36.4% xwOBA Δ-0.031 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
185▸	Max Kepler (LHB)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	8.0%	+8.8%	DIS	8.0%	+0.010	Fade
Fade8.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 8.0% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.272 Barrel%8.0% Exit velo89.2 mph Hard-hit%42.7% xwOBA Δ+0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
186▸	Jared Triolo (RHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	7.9%	+9.9%	ADV	2.2%	+0.003	Lotto
Lotto7.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.9% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.288 Barrel%2.2% Exit velo87.5 mph Hard-hit%36.1% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
187▸	Cedric Mullins (LHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	7.8%	+0.0%	DIS	3.7%	-0.034	Fade
Fade7.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.8% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#4 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR12 HR xwOBA0.253 Barrel%3.7% Exit velo88.0 mph Hard-hit%31.3% xwOBA Δ-0.034 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
188▸	Nolan Arenado (RHB)	AZ	Carson Palmquist (LHP)	Nationals Park	79° ⛅ 6 ←	7.8%	+8.8%	ADV	7.3%	-0.029	Lotto
Lotto7.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.8% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 3 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.300 Barrel%7.3% Exit velo85.0 mph Hard-hit%32.3% xwOBA Δ-0.029 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCarson Palmquist (LHP) ERA7.71 HR/90.55 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.041 Barrel% allowed3.8% 🌤 Environment ParkNationals Park Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+8.8% Temp79°F Wind6 mph E WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) Precip0%
189▸	Zach McKinstry (LHB)	DET	Beck Way (RHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	7.6%	+11.1%	ADV	2.5%	+0.007	Lotto
Lotto7.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.292 Barrel%2.5% Exit velo85.6 mph Hard-hit%23.4% xwOBA Δ+0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBeck Way (RHP) ERA3.86 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.009 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
190▸	Joey Ortiz (RHB)	MIL	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)	American Family Fi	74° ⛅ 11 ↖	7.6%	+0.0%	DIS	3.9%	+0.003	Fade
Fade7.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.6% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.297 Barrel%3.9% Exit velo87.9 mph Hard-hit%34.5% xwOBA Δ+0.003 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTomoyuki Sugano (RHP) ERA4.43 HR/91.90 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.048 Barrel% allowed13.8% 🌤 Environment ParkAmerican Family Field Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp74°F Wind11 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
191▸	Henry Davis (RHB)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	7.5%	+9.9%	ADV	9.4%	+0.026	Lotto
Lotto7.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR8 HR xwOBA0.292 Barrel%9.4% Exit velo89.9 mph Hard-hit%39.6% xwOBA Δ+0.026 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
192▸	Alejandro Kirk (RHB)	TOR	Patrick Sandoval (LHP)	Fenway Park	78° ⛅ 9 ↖	7.4%	+10.2%	ADV	2.3%	-0.006	Lotto
Lotto7.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.294 Barrel%2.3% Exit velo87.4 mph Hard-hit%36.6% xwOBA Δ-0.006 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherPatrick Sandoval (LHP) ERA3.30 HR/90.90 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.043 Barrel% allowed4.1% 🌤 Environment ParkFenway Park Park HR factor105 Env HR impact+10.2% Temp78°F Wind9 mph SE CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact Precip0%
193▸	Travis Bazzana (LHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	7.3%	+0.0%	DIS	4.6%	-0.018	Fade
Fade7.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.3% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%4.6% Exit velo88.4 mph Hard-hit%37.6% xwOBA Δ-0.018 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
194▸	Bryson Stott (LHB)	PHI	Cam Schlittler (RHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	7.2%	+10.3%	ADV	6.5%	+0.001	Lotto
Lotto7.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.2% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.335 Barrel%6.5% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%40.7% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherCam Schlittler (RHP) ERA2.21 HR/90.86 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.013 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
195▸	Henry Bolte (RHB)	ATH	Zebby Matthews (RHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	7.2%	+18.8%	DIS	7.7%	-0.011	Fade
Fade7.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.2% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.302 Barrel%7.7% Exit velo90.9 mph Hard-hit%48.2% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherZebby Matthews (RHP) ERA5.23 HR/91.78 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.011 Barrel% allowed12.3% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
196▸	Iván Herrera (RHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	7.2%	+8.0%	DIS	5.6%	-0.007	Fade
Fade7.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.2% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.331 Barrel%5.6% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%41.3% xwOBA Δ-0.007 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
197▸	Angel Martínez (Switch)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	7.1%	+0.0%	ADV	8.6%	+0.002	Lotto
Lotto7.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#1 Recent HR1 (L3) · 2 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR11 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%8.6% Exit velo87.9 mph Hard-hit%36.8% xwOBA Δ+0.002 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
198▸	Alec Burleson (LHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	7.1%	+8.0%	ADV	11.6%	+0.027	Lotto
Lotto7.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#3 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.385 Barrel%11.6% Exit velo91.9 mph Hard-hit%49.2% xwOBA Δ+0.027 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
199▸	Blaze Jordan (RHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	7.0%	+8.0%	DIS	8.3%	+0.032	Fade
Fade7.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 7.0% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.312 Barrel%8.3% Exit velo89.6 mph Hard-hit%46.3% xwOBA Δ+0.032 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
200▸	Xavier Edwards (Switch)	MIA	Germán Márquez (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	7.0%	+0.0%	ADV	3.7%	-0.015	Lotto
Lotto7.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 7.0% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.319 Barrel%3.7% Exit velo87.0 mph Hard-hit%28.9% xwOBA Δ-0.015 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGermán Márquez (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/92.38 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.008 Barrel% allowed9.8% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
201▸	Dane Myers (RHB)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	6.9%	+8.0%	DIS	4.8%	-0.005	Fade
Fade6.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 6.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.317 Barrel%4.8% Exit velo89.7 mph Hard-hit%36.3% xwOBA Δ-0.005 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
202▸	Víctor Caratini (Switch)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	6.6%	+18.8%	ADV	6.5%	+0.025	Lotto
Lotto6.6% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.6% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.317 Barrel%6.5% Exit velo89.5 mph Hard-hit%39.4% xwOBA Δ+0.025 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
203▸	José Caballero (RHB)	NYY	Jesús Luzardo (LHP)	Citizens Bank Park	79° ⛅ 6 ↖	6.5%	+10.3%	ADV	4.1%	-0.024	Lotto
Lotto6.5% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.5% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR10 HR xwOBA0.278 Barrel%4.1% Exit velo83.9 mph Hard-hit%24.9% xwOBA Δ-0.024 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJesús Luzardo (LHP) ERA3.32 HR/90.75 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed5.8% 🌤 Environment ParkCitizens Bank Park Park HR factor113 Env HR impact+10.3% Temp79°F Wind6 mph SE WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) Precip0%
204▸	Jonny DeLuca (RHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	6.4%	+0.0%	ADV	4.6%	-0.038	Lotto
Lotto6.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.4% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.282 Barrel%4.6% Exit velo84.9 mph Hard-hit%30.3% xwOBA Δ-0.038 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
205▸	Drew Romo (Switch)	CWS	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)	Rate Field	74° ⛅ 10 ↖	6.3%	+5.9%	ADV	5.8%	+0.016	Lotto
Lotto6.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.231 Barrel%5.8% Exit velo83.5 mph Hard-hit%24.3% xwOBA Δ+0.016 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherSpencer Arrighetti (RHP) ERA4.60 HR/91.23 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.024 Barrel% allowed7.7% 🌤 Environment ParkRate Field Park HR factor103 Env HR impact+5.9% Temp74°F Wind10 mph ESE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) Precip0%
206▸	Nicky Lopez (LHB)	TEX	Bryce Miller (RHP)	Globe Life Field	94° ☀️ 12 ↑	6.3%	+0.0%	ADV	0.0%	-0.026	Lotto
Lotto6.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR1 HR xwOBA0.260 Barrel%0.0% Exit velo84.5 mph Hard-hit%22.2% xwOBA Δ-0.026 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherBryce Miller (RHP) ERA3.08 HR/91.48 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.015 Barrel% allowed6.6% 🌤 Environment ParkGlobe Life Field Park HR factor100 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp94°F Wind12 mph SSE ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip0%
207▸	Gavin Sheets (LHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	6.3%	+0.0%	ADV	7.1%	+0.004	Lotto
Lotto6.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.3% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR14 HR xwOBA0.319 Barrel%7.1% Exit velo87.5 mph Hard-hit%39.3% xwOBA Δ+0.004 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
208▸	Jake Cronenworth (LHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	6.1%	+0.0%	ADV	4.0%	+0.017	Lotto
Lotto6.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#2 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.290 Barrel%4.0% Exit velo87.5 mph Hard-hit%31.8% xwOBA Δ+0.017 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
209▸	Luis Arráez (LHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	6.1%	-1.4%	ADV	0.9%	-0.037	Lotto
Lotto6.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Longshot — 6.1% HR probability with a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV); small-stake upside only. 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.302 Barrel%0.9% Exit velo87.0 mph Hard-hit%19.8% xwOBA Δ-0.037 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
210▸	Jake Mangum (Switch)	PIT	Matt Boyd (LHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	5.9%	+9.9%	ADV	1.9%	-0.039	Fade
Fade5.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.9% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#1 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.292 Barrel%1.9% Exit velo85.7 mph Hard-hit%27.5% xwOBA Δ-0.039 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherMatt Boyd (LHP) ERA3.50 HR/91.02 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed9.4% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%
211▸	Vinnie Pasquantino (LHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	5.9%	+11.1%	DIS	6.8%	+0.020	Fade
Fade5.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 5.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.315 Barrel%6.8% Exit velo89.0 mph Hard-hit%39.7% xwOBA Δ+0.020 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
212▸	Vaughn Grissom (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	5.9%	-1.4%	DIS	6.4%	+0.010	Fade
Fade5.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 5.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#5 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.320 Barrel%6.4% Exit velo88.4 mph Hard-hit%39.4% xwOBA Δ+0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
213▸	Chandler Simpson (LHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	5.9%	+0.0%	DIS	0.0%	-0.044	Fade
Fade5.9% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 5.9% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.264 Barrel%0.0% Exit velo83.9 mph Hard-hit%13.8% xwOBA Δ-0.044 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
214▸	Edwin Arroyo (Switch)	CIN	Dustin May (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	5.8%	+8.0%	ADV	1.9%	+0.050	Fade
Fade5.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.8% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#9 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR0 HR xwOBA0.307 Barrel%1.9% Exit velo87.6 mph Hard-hit%26.2% xwOBA Δ+0.050 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherDustin May (RHP) ERA4.30 HR/90.63 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.006 Barrel% allowed6.8% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
215▸	Nick Loftin (RHB)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	5.8%	+11.1%	ADV	4.2%	-0.019	Fade
Fade5.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.8% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.306 Barrel%4.2% Exit velo86.6 mph Hard-hit%28.8% xwOBA Δ-0.019 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
216▸	Isaac Collins (Switch)	KC	Tarik Skubal (LHP)	Comerica Park	77° ⛅ 7 ↖	5.8%	+11.1%	ADV	5.9%	-0.010	Fade
Fade5.8% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.8% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#7 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR6 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%5.9% Exit velo88.5 mph Hard-hit%40.6% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherTarik Skubal (LHP) ERA2.93 HR/91.00 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.004 Barrel% allowed7.5% 🌤 Environment ParkComerica Park Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+11.1% Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) Precip0%
217▸	Brayan Rocchio (Switch)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	5.4%	+0.0%	ADV	3.5%	-0.011	Fade
Fade5.4% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.4% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#4 Recent HR0 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.297 Barrel%3.5% Exit velo86.4 mph Hard-hit%30.4% xwOBA Δ-0.011 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
218▸	Masyn Winn (RHB)	STL	Rhett Lowder (RHP)	Busch Stadium	73° ⛅ 4 ↑	5.3%	+8.0%	DIS	3.2%	+0.013	Fade
Fade5.3% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 5.3% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.304 Barrel%3.2% Exit velo88.2 mph Hard-hit%35.0% xwOBA Δ+0.013 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRhett Lowder (RHP) ERA5.26 HR/91.11 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.015 Barrel% allowed9.2% 🌤 Environment ParkBusch Stadium Park HR factor96 Env HR impact+8.0% Temp73°F Wind4 mph S CALM — wind minimal factor Precip3%
219▸	Ben Williamson (RHB)	TB	Joey Cantillo (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	5.2%	+0.0%	ADV	1.5%	+0.001	Fade
Fade5.2% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.2% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR2 HR xwOBA0.289 Barrel%1.5% Exit velo87.3 mph Hard-hit%33.0% xwOBA Δ+0.001 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJoey Cantillo (LHP) ERA3.91 HR/91.13 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.030 Barrel% allowed8.4% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
220▸	Brooks Lee (Switch)	MIN	Jacob Lopez (LHP)	Target Field	78° ⛅ 12 ↑	5.0%	+18.8%	ADV	3.7%	-0.044	Fade
Fade5.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 5.0% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsSwitch Lineup#8 Recent HR1 (L3) · 1 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR15 HR xwOBA0.270 Barrel%3.7% Exit velo87.7 mph Hard-hit%31.9% xwOBA Δ-0.044 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJacob Lopez (LHP) ERA5.38 HR/91.54 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.063 Barrel% allowed4.8% 🌤 Environment ParkTarget Field Park HR factor98 Env HR impact+18.8% Temp78°F Wind12 mph SSW CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact Precip0%
221▸	Oswald Peraza (RHB)	LAA	Logan Webb (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	4.1%	-1.4%	DIS	7.1%	-0.010	Fade
Fade4.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 4.1% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#7 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR7 HR xwOBA0.271 Barrel%7.1% Exit velo87.6 mph Hard-hit%38.6% xwOBA Δ-0.010 neutral ⚾ Pitcher PitcherLogan Webb (RHP) ERA3.59 HR/90.61 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.026 Barrel% allowed5.3% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
222▸	Jung Hoo Lee (LHB)	SF	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)	Oracle Park	65° 🌬️ 18 →	4.1%	-1.4%	ADV	2.7%	-0.025	Fade
Fade4.1% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 4.1% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsLHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR5 HR xwOBA0.315 Barrel%2.7% Exit velo86.9 mph Hard-hit%29.2% xwOBA Δ-0.025 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherGrayson Rodriguez (RHP) ERA7.20 HR/91.47 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.011 Barrel% allowed11.0% 🌤 Environment ParkOracle Park Park HR factor83 Env HR impact-1.4% Temp65°F Wind18 mph WNW WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) Precip0%
223▸	Austin Hedges (RHB)	CLE	Shane McClanahan (LHP)	Tropicana Field	🏟 dome	4.0%	+0.0%	ADV	4.5%	-0.037	Fade
Fade4.0% HR probabilityPlatoon: ADV Why this grade: Fade — 4.0% HR probability and/or a platoon edge (opposite-handed, ADV). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 2 (L10) Season HR3 HR xwOBA0.284 Barrel%4.5% Exit velo86.6 mph Hard-hit%31.8% xwOBA Δ-0.037 FADE · overperforming ⚾ Pitcher PitcherShane McClanahan (LHP) ERA3.09 HR/90.64 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.044 Barrel% allowed8.6% 🌤 Environment ParkTropicana Field Park HR factor95 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp— Wind🏟 Dome — wind not a factor Precip—
224▸	Xander Bogaerts (RHB)	SD	Ryan Gusto (RHP)	loanDepot park	88° ☀️ 9 ←	3.7%	+0.0%	DIS	5.4%	+0.030	Fade
Fade3.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 3.7% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#8 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 1 (L10) Season HR9 HR xwOBA0.318 Barrel%5.4% Exit velo88.4 mph Hard-hit%40.1% xwOBA Δ+0.030 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherRyan Gusto (RHP) ERA4.78 HR/91.10 xwOBA Δ allowed+0.000 Barrel% allowed8.3% 🌤 Environment ParkloanDepot park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+0.0% Temp88°F Wind9 mph E ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) Precip3%
225▸	Nico Hoerner (RHB)	CHC	Jared Jones (RHP)	PNC Park	74° ⛅ 5 ↙	3.7%	+9.9%	DIS	1.2%	+0.021	Fade
Fade3.7% HR probabilityPlatoon: DIS Why this grade: Fade — 3.7% HR probability and/or a same-handed matchup (DIS). 🧢 Batter BatsRHB Lineup#6 Recent HR0 (L3) · 0 (L5) · 0 (L10) Season HR4 HR xwOBA0.325 Barrel%1.2% Exit velo85.9 mph Hard-hit%28.0% xwOBA Δ+0.021 BUY · regression due ⚾ Pitcher PitcherJared Jones (RHP) ERA5.03 HR/91.53 xwOBA Δ allowed-0.020 Barrel% allowed8.0% 🌤 Environment ParkPNC Park Park HR factor97 Env HR impact+9.9% Temp74°F Wind5 mph ENE CALM — wind minimal factor Precip6%

Ranked by projected HR probability — click any row for the full batter / pitcher / environment breakdown, search by player/team/pitcher, or click a column header to re-sort. Time is your local first-pitch time and shows live game status — inning · score while in progress, Final when done — updated automatically from the live feed. proj = lineup not yet confirmed. ~ = estimated probability.

Reading the verdicts: BUY recommended play · LEAN alternate / secondary · FADE avoid. The Bet Card lists only the top (BUY) plays; LEAN names are the alternates.

Select a game for its recommendation, weather, pitchers, and analysis. Sorted by start time (earliest first).

· COL @ MIL · American Family Field +0.0% 1 playSTARTEDTotal 8.8 · COL 42% / MIL 58%

RecommendedHunter Goodman COL 19.8% ADV A

🌤 74°F · WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (11.3 mph from ESE) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: +0.0%

SP: Tomoyuki Sugano @ Shane Drohan

COL @ MIL — American Family Field | NEUTRAL (HR factor 105)

Wind IN from CF (11.3 mph ESE) is a genuine suppressor at American Family — the roof blocks most precipitation but the wind read suppresses deep flies for both clubs tonight. That cuts directly against a stacking the Rockies, who already project as a middling offense (1.29 HR/game L7). The Brewers face Tomoyuki Sugano, who is in freefall — 8 HR in his last 27.2 IP (HR/9 2.60, ERA 6.18), a 13.7% barrel-allowed rate, and a xwOBA gap of +0.044 (a confirmed fade target). His GO/AO of 0.77 is fly-ball lean, meaning balls stay in the air for Milwaukee hitters to punish.

The key play on the Brewers side is Jackson Chourio. His 13.2% barrel and EV 92.2 against a fly-ball-leaning pitcher who has been shelled recently is the cleanest intersection. The sharp breakdown leans heavily on the Brewers — it names a player matching the "Bowers" description as its #1 MIL target, a player with top contact metrics vs. Sugano. Reviewing the confirmed lineup, Garrett Mitchell (14.1% barrel, EV 92.6, HH 49.2%) in the 5 hole and Jake Bauers (13.5% barrel, EV 92.5, HH 53.0%) in the 7 hole carry real power. The the sharp breakdown thread calls Mitchell (+330) and Turang (+500) — Turang is a contact bat (8.5% barrel) and a lower-conviction play. Mitchell's barrel is elite but the sharp breakdown noted his fly-ball rate as a concern, keeping him at LEAN.

On the Rockies side facing Shane Drohan, Hunter Goodman (17.4% barrel, L15 13.3%, EV 91.1) is the lone legitimate power threat. Drohan is excellent (HR/9 0.7, HR/9 0.60 in recent form, barrel-allowed 8.8%) and represents a hard ceiling for Colorado's HR output. The wind suppressor further depresses the Rockies side. Goodman appears at #9 in the ranked table with a model HR% of 19.8%, but Drohan's elite recent form (2 HR in 30.0 IP) and the wind-in environment combine to push this toward a pass.

Live research: No lineup changes or scratches confirmed for this game. Data stands as posted.

The plays: Jackson Chourio BUY | Garrett Mitchell LEAN | Hunter Goodman FADE

· KC @ DET · Comerica Park FAVORABLE +11.1% STARTEDTotal 7.6 · KC 32% / DET 68%

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 77°F · WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (7.4 mph from SE) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +11.1%

SP: Beck Way @ Tarik Skubal

KC @ DET — Comerica Park | NEUTRAL (HR factor 95)

Beck Way starts for Kansas City with a HEAVY GROUND-BALL profile (GO/AO 1.53) — the single most important structural suppressor on the entire slate. A 1.53 GO/AO means Detroit hitters are rolling over balls into the infield, not in the air. Comerica's deep CF compounds this; the HR factor sits at 95, below neutral. Wind in from CF (6.4 mph) adds another modest suppressor. This triple-stacks against any Tigers HR prop: the park suppresses, the wind suppresses, and Way converts fly-ball attempts into grounders. The entire Detroit HR slate is discounted structurally.

Tarik Skubal opposes KC. His ground-ball lean (GO/AO 1.49), 1.1 HR/9 season rate, and elite suppression profile (barrel-allowed 6.7%, EV-allowed 86.9) make the Royals HR upside equally limited. The sharp breakdown explicitly flags Skubal as the top ERA arm on the slate and recommends hitting/TB props over HR props for Lane Thomas. Kansas City is averaging 1.14 HR/game over L7 — average offense behind a wall.

Dillon Dingler leads the Detroit side in the model (rank 29, +560 FD, 17.2%) but a platoon disadvantage (RHB vs. RHP Way), the heavy-GB starter, and a sub-neutral park make this an avoid. Riley Greene (14.8% barrel, EV 91.5, HH 51.0%) is the best batted-ball bat in the lineup, and the the sharp breakdown thread calls Greene (+350) as its top DET play — but even Greene's elite barrel reads can't overcome a 1.53 GO/AO pitcher. The sharp breakdown explicitly names Lane Thomas as the KC standout but discounts him behind Skubal. No strong HR play on either side in this game.

Live research: No confirmed scratches or lineup changes for this game.

The plays: Riley Greene PASS | Lane Thomas PASS | Dillon Dingler FADE

· CHC @ PIT · PNC Park FAVORABLE +9.9% 2 playsSTARTEDTotal 8.3 · CHC 49% / PIT 51%

RecommendedEsmerlyn Valdez PIT 18.2% ADV APete Crow-Armstrong CHC 16.6% ADV A

🌤 74°F · CALM — wind minimal factor · precip 6%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +9.9%

SP: Matthew Boyd @ Jared Jones

CHC @ PIT — PNC Park | NEUTRAL (HR factor 97)

Wind IN from CF (6.0 mph ESE) is a modest suppressor at PNC. Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago — his season HR/9 of 1.0 looks acceptable but his xwOBA gap of +0.025 is a mild fade signal and his recent form (4 HR in 28.0 IP) is slightly elevated from the season baseline. His barrel-allowed (10.1%) and GO/AO (1.02, essentially neutral) don't add or subtract meaningfully. Jared Jones on the home side has been dominant recently (1 HR in 22.7 IP, HR/9 0.40, ERA 2.38), keeping the Cubs HR ceiling capped.

Esmerlyn Valdez is the clear standout in this game. His 29.7% barrel rate and L15 barrel of 26.7% (EV 99, HH 67%) are among the elite numbers on the entire slate. He holds platoon advantage (RHB vs. LHP Boyd) with a normal split read. The model ranks him #23 with a 18.2% HR probability and the sharp breakdown explicitly commits to him as the Pirates' top HR target. The the sharp breakdown thread does not name him directly but Boyd's xwOBA gap (+0.025) and barrel-allowed (10.1%) confirm he is hittable. Three-source alignment (model, sharp breakdown, batted-ball profile) makes Valdez the BUY here. The only check: PNC plays as a 97 park factor and wind is slightly in — which mutes the ceiling modestly but doesn't override a 29.7% barrel.

Ian Happ (12.1% barrel, EV 89.6) is the Cubs' best power bat facing Jones, but Jones's recent form (0.40 HR/9 in last 22.7 IP) and below-par barrel-allowed (6.8%) make Happ a tough sell. The the sharp breakdown thread calls Happ (+450) and Reynolds (+480) — Reynolds (10.4% barrel, EV 90.7) is a reasonable flier given his lineup slot and contact profile, but the sharp breakdown rates him only B-tier with moderate conviction.

Live research: No confirmed changes; lineups pending full confirmation but projected order stands.

The plays: Esmerlyn Valdez BUY | Ian Happ LEAN | Bryan Reynolds LEAN

· AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park FAVORABLE +8.8% 4 playsSTARTEDTotal 9.8 · AZ 52% / WSH 48%

RecommendedCorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% AJames Wood WSH 20.4% AKetel Marte AZ 19.9% ADV ACurtis Mead WSH 18.6% ADV A

🌤 79°F · WIND IN from LF — SUPPRESSOR (6.1 mph from E) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +8.8%

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez @ Carson Palmquist

AZ @ WSH — Nationals Park | NEUTRAL (HR factor 100)

This is one of the best overall HR environments on the slate. Both offenses are running hot (AZ 1.71 HR/game, WSH 2.0 HR/game L7), the total sits at 9.8 (highest over/under among the non-dome games), and a crosswind to LF (6.9 mph from E) provides modest neutral-to-mild-positive conditions. Carson Palmquist on the Nationals mound is a significant factor — his sample is tiny (11.1 IP, GO/AO 0.38 extreme fly-ball lean, ERA 8.74, HR/9 1.00 in recent form) and while his xwOBA gap is negative (-0.071), that is a small-sample read that should be treated with extreme caution. The fly-ball lean is the operative structural signal: when a pitcher constantly elevates his pitches, hitters stay in their swing paths.

Corbin Carroll (L) vs. Palmquist (LHP) is a platoon disadvantage (DIS, same-handed, split listed as `—`). The model has Carroll at #2 overall (20.7%) but the DIS platoon and a market that prices him at 26.6% (edge: -5.9 pp) suggest the books have recalibrated around his hot recent form (L15 barrel 20.0%, EV 93, HH 60%). The market is pricing this better than the model. Still, 20.0% L15 barrel in a fly-ball-heavy matchup against a struggling LHP with an 8.74 ERA is not easily dismissed.

James Wood (L) vs. Rodriguez (LHP) is the same-handed DIS matchup, split confirmed normal (no reverse), and E-Rod is a strong pitcher (ERA 2.62, xwOBA gap +0.045 is a fade signal for the pitcher). Wood's 22.1% barrel and EV 95.2 are elite — the model has him #3 at 20.4%, market at 29.2% (-8.9 pp edge, market is sharper). Wood's L15 barrel data is missing, which is a gap. The sharp breakdown commits to Wood and Mead as its WSH pair, and the the sharp breakdown thread names Chaparro and "Lile" (likely Tyler Locklear, as Locklear has a stunning 27.3% barrel and xwOBA.492). Andrés Chaparro (14.9% barrel, EV 91.1, L15 implied from sharp interest) is the stronger stack option on the Nationals side.

Ketel Marte (S/switch) vs. LHP Palmquist = ADV (switch-hitting, bats right vs. LHP). Model has him #7 at 19.9%, L15 barrel 13.3% (EV 98, HH 60%). The market prices him at 29.5% (-9.5 pp). Marte's xwOBA of +0.029 is a mild tiebreaker. The sharp breakdown does NOT explicitly name Marte as a committed pick (it names "Walsh Schmidt" / Tyler Locklear and Arenado instead). Nolan Arenado (7.5% barrel, EV 85.3) is the sharp breakdown's second committed AZ pick ("on a heater") but his current batted-ball is mediocre; this is a single-source signal (sharp only, no metric corroboration) — LEAN at best.

Tyler Locklear (AZ) in the 7 hole has a remarkable 27.3% barrel — the highest among all AZ hitters — and xwOBA.492, but a small sample is likely (he's a relatively new MLB player) and his EV of 86.4 is pedestrian for that barrel number. Still, against Palmquist's extreme fly-ball rate, this is a Lotto/LEAN.

Live research: No confirmed lineup changes for this game. E-Rod confirmed as WSH starter.

· NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park FAVORABLE +10.3% 5 playsSTARTEDTotal 8.6 · NYY 43% / PHI 57%

RecommendedBen Rice NYY 20.3% AKyle Schwarber PHI 20.0% ADV APaul Goldschmidt NYY 19.9% ADV ABryce Harper PHI 19.4% ADV ABrandon Marsh PHI 17.4% ADV A

🌤 79°F · WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (5.6 mph from SE) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +10.3%

SP: Cam Schlittler @ Jesús Luzardo

NYY @ PHI — Citizens Bank Park | FAVORABLE (HR factor 113)

Citizens Bank is one of the five best HR parks in baseball (113 factor), both lineups are in the top half of HR rates, and wind is CALM — no suppressor. The pivotal pitcher on this slate is Jesús Luzardo (LHP) on the Phillies mound. His season HR/9 is 0.8 but his recent form is extraordinary: 1 HR in 29.7 IP (HR/9 0.30, ERA 1.21) — that is a dominant recent stretch. His GO/AO of 1.46 (ground-ball lean), barrel-allowed 5.4%, and EV-allowed 86.7 all confirm genuine suppression, not just luck. The market and sharp breakdown both reflect this: the Yankees' ranked bats (Rice, Goldschmidt) carry heavy market edges going the other way (market prices them more than the model). Luzardo's recent form structurally caps the Yankees HR ceiling even inside Citizens Bank.

On the Phillies side facing Cam Schlittler, the story is equally nuanced. Schlittler's season ERA of 2.20 is excellent, but his recent form tells a completely different story: 7 HR in 28.0 IP (HR/9 2.25, ERA 3.86 over the last 5 starts). He is getting shelled on the recent stretch. His xwOBA gap of +0.013 adds to the fade signal. The market has already adjusted — Schwarber is priced at 35.4% (market) vs. 20.0% (model), a -15.4 pp edge suggesting the market sees a much better HR shot than the model.

Kyle Schwarber is the BUY on the Phillies side: 18.8% barrel, L15 20.0% (EV 94, HH 47%), confirmed platoon ADV (LHB vs. RHP Schlittler), and a `✓ reverse` split notation (the DIS penalty is already softened — but here it reads ADV, further reinforcing). Three-source alignment: model (#6 ranked), sharp breakdown (top KHR despite the source naming "Brandon Scott" — likely Schlittler data confusion, as no "Brandon Scott" appears in the PHI confirmed lineup; Bryson Stott is the closest match at 7.2% barrel, well below Schwarber), the sharp breakdown doesn't name Schwarber directly but names Rosario (+540) and Realmuto (+600) as its PHI plays. That diverges — the sharp breakdown likely sees Schlittler's suppressive season line, while the recent form suggests otherwise.

Bryce Harper (11.2% barrel, L15 20.0%, EV 87) holds ADV and `✓ reverse` split; market prices him at 25.2% vs. 19.4% model (-5.9 edge). His EV (87) is below the 88 average threshold, making his recent form (L15 20.0%) the operative read. The sharp breakdown commits to Harper alongside "Brandon Scott" — Harper is a LEAN.

On the Yankees side: Ben Rice (15.5% barrel) is the model's #4 pick, but the DIS platoon (LHB vs. LHP Luzardo, confirmed normal split), Luzardo's dominant recent form (0.30 HR/9 over 5 starts), and the market pricing Rice well above model (23.1% vs. 20.3%) all warrant caution. The market is more bullish on Rice than the model, which is a mild flag given how well Luzardo has been throwing. Paul Goldschmidt (11.1% barrel, L15 13.3%) holds ADV but Luzardo's recent dominance caps all Yankees HR upside regardless of platoon. Both are PASS in this environment.

Live research: No confirmed lineup changes; weather confirmed calm. Luzardo confirmed as PHI starter.

The plays: Kyle Schwarber BUY | Bryce Harper LEAN | Ben Rice PASS | Paul Goldschmidt PASS

· ATL @ BAL · Oriole Park at Camden Yards FAVORABLE +9.6% 1 playSTARTEDTotal 8.9 · ATL 54% / BAL 46%

RecommendedOzzie Albies ATL 16.6% ADV A

🌤 77°F · CROSSWIND to LF (8.1 mph from ESE) — modest HR impact · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +9.6%

SP: Grant Holmes @ Trevor Rogers

ATL @ BAL — Oriole Park at Camden Yards | NEUTRAL (HR factor 104)

Atlanta brings the hottest offense on the slate (2.14 HR/game L7) into a 104-factor park with favorable HR boost (+9.6%) and a crosswind to LF — modest positive for LHH. Trevor Rogers faces the Braves: his season ERA (4.28) and fly-ball lean (GO/AO 0.72) suggest vulnerability, but his recent form is excellent — 1 HR in 30.7 IP (HR/9 0.29, ERA 0.88 over last 5 starts). This is the same pattern as Luzardo: a pitcher whose season line is being massively outperformed recently. Barrel-allowed 6.4%, EV-allowed 89.1. Rogers is running much hotter than his season number suggests.

Matt Olson (L) vs. Rogers (LHP) is a DIS platoon (split confirmed normal). Olson's L15 barrel has crashed to 6.7% vs. his 13.7% season rate (EV 93, HH 53% in L15) — a cold stretch confirmed. Model has him #10 at 19.7%, but the cold L15 combined with Rogers' recent dominance and the DIS platoon make this a fade. The the sharp breakdown thread does not name Olson.

Drake Baldwin (L) leads the Braves in the #1 hole with 15.0% barrel, EV 91.5, HH 50.4% — but faces the same DIS platoon vs. Rogers, and Rogers's recent form (0.29 HR/9) makes the matchup unattractive. Model has Baldwin at 18.4%. LEAN at best; no market corroboration.

Michael Harris II (L) — 12.3% barrel, L15 26.7% (EV 93, HH 60%) — is the single best recent-form signal on the Braves roster. That L15 barrel (26.7%) is a significant jump above his season rate. DIS platoon (LHB vs. LHP Rogers) and normal split, but Rogers's recent dominance suppresses the read. LEAN.

On the Orioles side, Pete Alonso (12.0% barrel, L15 13.3%, EV 92, HH 67%) faces Grant Holmes (RHP), which is a DIS platoon confirmed normal. Holmes's recent form is much better than his season line — 2 HR in 21.7 IP (HR/9 0.83) vs. 1.5 season. Alonso's model rank is #24 (18.2%), market at 28.5% (edge: -10.3 pp). The market is significantly more bullish on Alonso than the model, and the the sharp breakdown thread calls Alonso (+360) as a sharp read (🤠🔪). The sharp breakdown also names Alonso as "the guy" in the Orioles game. Multi-source agreement: model, the sharp breakdown (sharp), sharp breakdown all on Alonso. The market overpricing (28.5% vs. 18.2%) is a caution flag — the books know something. LEAN-to-BUY; the cross-source alignment is real but the market edge gap keeps this from being a full BUY.

Gunnar Henderson (6.9% barrel, EV 89.6) is the the sharp breakdown's #1 BAL play (+330). His barrel is below the strong threshold (8%) but his current-season batted-ball runs warm at EV 89.6 and HH 44.5%. The the sharp breakdown pegs him as the top bat; the model doesn't rank him in the top 30. This is a single-source (the sharp breakdown) signal without model or batted-ball corroboration — PASS.

Live research: No confirmed scratches. Holmes confirmed as ATL starter; Rogers confirmed for BAL.

The plays: Pete Alonso LEAN | Michael Harris II LEAN | Drake Baldwin PASS | Matt Olson FADE | Gunnar Henderson PASS

· LAD @ NYM · Citi Field FAVORABLE +9.8% STARTEDTotal 8.6 · LAD 47% / NYM 53%

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 76°F · WIND OUT to LF — HR POSITIVE (10.8 mph from SSE) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +9.8%

SP: Roki Sasaki @ Sean Manaea

LAD @ NYM — Citi Field | NEUTRAL (HR factor 95)

The wind is the decisive variable here: WIND OUT to LF (6.8 mph from SE) — a confirmed HR-positive for LHH in particular. Citi Field's base HR factor is 95 (slight suppressor), but wind out to LF flips the script for left-handed pull hitters. The HR boost column confirms +9.8%.

Roki Sasaki starts for the Mets. His season HR/9 is 2.0, but his recent form is alarming: 8 HR in 24.3 IP (HR/9 2.96, ERA 5.55 over the last 5 starts). His barrel-allowed is 12.0% — at the vulnerable threshold — and his xwOBA gap (-0.021) is negative, meaning his contact-quality allowed is actually better than results, but the HR rate remains elevated. This is a pitcher the Dodgers should be able to damage.

Shohei Ohtani (L) vs. Manaea (LHP) on the flip side: DIS platoon (LHB vs. LHP), normal split. Manaea's recent form is also poor (6 HR in 25.3 IP, HR/9 2.13), which partially offsets the DIS platoon. Ohtani's 17.0% barrel, L15 20.0% (EV 90, HH 53%), and EV 93.6 are excellent. Model has him #14 at 19.4%, market at 30.4% (edge: -10.9 pp). The market is sharply more bullish than the model on Ohtani — a caution flag, but the barrel profile and Manaea's recent failures are real. The sharp breakdown does NOT commit to Ohtani; it explicitly names Betts and Hernández as its Dodgers pair. LEAN.

The Mets against Sasaki are the clear play. Francisco Lindor (9.1% barrel, EV 92.0, HH 49.0%) — model doesn't rank him in the top 30, but the sharp breakdown commits to Lindor as its top NYM pick, and the the sharp breakdown thread leads with Lindor (+440) for the Mets. Sasaki's HR/9 2.96 recently with 12% barrel-allowed is a green light for Mets hitters. Lindor's barrel (9.1%) is good, not elite, but the EV (92.0) and HH (49.0%) are strong. Juan Soto (14.2% barrel, EV 92.5, HH 48.6%) is the best batted-ball bat on the Mets and the the sharp breakdown's #1 NYM pick (+310 — the shortest line in the game). Soto's barrel is elite, platoon ADV (LHB vs. RHP Sasaki), and three sources agree: model doesn't rank him top 30 (a gap), but sharp breakdown implicitly covers the Mets-vs-Sasaki stack, the sharp breakdown leads with Soto, and batted-ball is strong. Francisco Alvarez (15.9% barrel, EV 90.2) in the 9 hole is a lotto — Sasaki's soft spots by slot include 2nd (3 HR/42 AB) and 5th (3 HR/39 AB) and 3rd (4 HR/41 AB); the 9-hole is not flagged, but Alvarez's barrel alone at 15.9% warrants a mention as a stack option.

Live research: Julio Rodríguez (SEA) confirmed healthy and in the lineup — unrelated to this game but confirmed above. No LAD/NYM scratches identified. Sasaki confirmed as NYM starter.

The plays: Juan Soto BUY | Francisco Lindor LEAN | Shohei Ohtani LEAN | Francisco Alvarez LEAN

CLE @ TB — Tropicana Field | NEUTRAL (HR factor 95)

Dome game — no weather impact. The total is 6.8, the lowest on the slate, reflecting two pitchers who have been dominant recently. Shane McClanahan's recent form (4 HR in 27.0 IP, HR/9 1.33, ERA 3.00) is a slight step back from his season line (0.7 HR/9) but still well within control. His xwOBA gap (+0.041) is the one yellow flag — he's been getting slightly unlucky on contact quality (barrel-allowed 8.9%), which could signal some regression toward hitter-friendly outcomes. Joey Cantillo has been excellent recently: 1 HR in 26.0 IP (HR/9 0.35, ERA 2.77) — he is genuinely suppressing the Rays.

Rhys Hoskins (R) vs. McClanahan (LHP) = ADV platoon (RHB vs. LHP), normal split. His 12.3% barrel and EV 88.6 are solid; his L15 (not provided) carries uncertainty. The sharp breakdown has a strong signal on Hoskins — named as "really looks like that dude" — and the the sharp breakdown thread leads CLE with Hoskins (+360). The park is slight suppressor (95), but two independent sources agree and McClanahan's xwOBA gap (+0.041) provides a mild residual flag. Multi-source agreement elevates Hoskins to a BUY despite the suppressing environment and low total.

David Fry (L) vs. McClanahan (LHP) = DIS platoon (LHB vs. LHP), normal split. Fry's 6.8% barrel is below the strong threshold. The sharp breakdown names him as a secondary pick with a "heater" note. The the sharp breakdown confirms Fry (+700). Without L15 data and with the DIS platoon in a suppressing park, this is a single-source lotto.

On the Rays side, Cantillo's recent dominance (0.35 HR/9) caps the entire Tampa lineup. Junior Caminero (13.4% barrel, EV 93.1, HH 51.5%) is the standout batted-ball bat; the sharp breakdown mentions him as a "generational" talent but defers to Yandy Díaz as the committed pick. Without confirmation in either the ranked table or the the sharp breakdown thread, Caminero is a Lotto play only.

Live research: No confirmed scratches or changes for this game.

The plays: Rhys Hoskins BUY | David Fry LEAN | Junior Caminero LEAN

· CLE @ TB · Tropicana Field +0.0% 1 playSTARTEDTotal 6.8 · CLE 44% / TB 56%

RecommendedJunior Caminero TB 16.2% ADV A

🌤 DOME — no live weather

Environment HR boost: +0.0%

SP: Joey Cantillo @ Shane McClanahan

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Junior Caminero (TB · A · 16.2%), David Fry (CLE · B · 13.9%), Rhys Hoskins (CLE · B · 13.5%).

· SD @ MIA · loanDepot park +0.0% STARTEDTotal 9.1 · SD 47% / MIA 53%

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 88°F · ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) · precip 3%

Environment HR boost: +0.0%

SP: Germán Márquez @ Ryan Gusto

SD @ MIA — loanDepot park | NEUTRAL (HR factor 97)

Roof closed — no weather factor. The HR factor is 97 with no HR boost (0.0%), confirming neutral-to-slight-suppressor conditions. Germán Márquez starts for San Diego and is the most vulnerable SP in this game: ERA 5.24, HR/9 2.2 season rate, recent form 6 HR in 23.0 IP (HR/9 2.35, ERA 6.26), xwOBA gap -0.010 (he's not getting lucky — this is real), GO/AO 0.71 fly-ball lean. Márquez is a legitimate HR prop feast for the Marlins side.

Griffin Conine (17.5% barrel, EV 90.3, HH 54.0%) is the top batted-ball bat in the Miami lineup. The sharp breakdown commits to "Mac and Conine" explicitly, and the the sharp breakdown thread leads MIA with Conine (+330) — its sharpest Marlins play. Platoon: the Marlins data doesn't provide handedness splits clearly, but Conine vs. RHP Márquez is standard setup. Three-source agreement (model doesn't rank Conine in top 30 — a gap

· TOR @ BOS · Fenway Park FAVORABLE +10.2% 1 playSTARTEDTotal 9.9 · TOR 49% / BOS 51%

RecommendedKazuma Okamoto TOR 17.1% ADV A

🌤 78°F · CROSSWIND to LF (9.2 mph from SE) — modest HR impact · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +10.2%

SP: Trey Yesavage @ Patrick Sandoval

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Willson Contreras (BOS · B · 19.2%), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR · A · 17.1%), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS · B · 15.8%).

· HOU @ CWS · Rate Field +5.9% 4 playsSTARTEDTotal 10.0 · HOU 51% / CWS 49%

RecommendedYordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% ADV AColson Montgomery CWS 19.1% ADV ASam Antonacci CWS 17.6% ADV AMunetaka Murakami CWS 17.6% ADV A

🌤 74°F · WIND IN from CF — SUPPRESSOR (10.3 mph from ESE) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: +5.9%

SP: Spencer Arrighetti @ Davis Martin

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Yordan Álvarez (HOU · A · 21.3%), Colson Montgomery (CWS · A · 19.1%), Sam Antonacci (CWS · A · 17.6%).

· SEA @ TEX · Globe Life Field +0.0% 3 playsSTARTEDTotal 8.0 · SEA 45% / TEX 55%

RecommendedJulio Rodríguez SEA 18.3% ADV AJoc Pederson TEX 18.0% ADV ACal Raleigh SEA 16.2% ADV A

🌤 94°F · ROOF CLOSED — wind not a factor (indoor) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: +0.0%

SP: Bryce Miller @ MacKenzie Gore

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Julio Rodríguez (SEA · A · 18.3%), Joc Pederson (TEX · A · 18.0%), Wyatt Langford (TEX · B · 16.8%).

· ATH @ MIN · Target Field PREMIUM +18.8% 2 playsSTARTEDTotal 9.1 · ATH 50% / MIN 50%

Recommended⭐ Byron Buxton MIN 20.3% ADV STyler Soderstrom ATH 19.6% ADV A

🌤 78°F · CROSSWIND to LF (12.3 mph from SSW) — modest HR impact · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: PREMIUM +18.8%

SP: Jacob Lopez @ Zebby Matthews

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Byron Buxton (MIN · S · 20.3%), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH · A · 19.6%), Shea Langeliers (ATH · B · 19.2%).

· CIN @ STL · Busch Stadium FAVORABLE +8.0% STARTEDTotal 7.8 · CIN 49% / STL 51%

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 73°F · CALM — wind minimal factor · precip 3%

Environment HR boost: FAVORABLE +8.0%

SP: Rhett Lowder @ Dustin May

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Sal Stewart (CIN · B · 15.4%), Elly De La Cruz (CIN · B · 13.7%), Jordan Walker (STL · Lotto · 13.3%).

· LAA @ SF · Oracle Park -1.4% STARTEDTotal 7.5 · LAA 36% / SF 64%

No S/A-tier play in this game.

🌤 65°F · WIND OUT to RF — HR POSITIVE (18.5 mph from WNW STRONG) · precip 0%

Environment HR boost: -1.4%

SP: Grayson Rodriguez @ Logan Webb

No detailed write-up was generated for this game — top model bats: Rafael Devers (SF · B · 15.0%), Mike Trout (LAA · Lotto · 13.0%), Willy Adames (SF · Lotto · 12.9%).

📋 Slate overview & cross-source notes

Key live research findings:

1. Zebby Matthews (MIN) — KNEE IL / TBA starter: Multiple sources confirm Matthews headed to the IL with a knee injury. The ATH @ MIN pitching matchup now shows "Zebby Matthews vs. TBA" — the Twins' starter for July 24 is unconfirmed. This materially affects the Soderstrom/Langeliers/Buxton reads.

2. Julio Rodríguez (SEA): Returned from concussion IL around July 12-13 and is confirmed in the Mariners lineup as shown in the data above. Active.

3. Jeremy Peña (HOU) / Jordan Walker (STL): MLB.com injury headline noted "Peña (right hamstring cramp), Walker (right hip tightness) exit early" — these are from a recent prior game. Their July 24 status requires caution; both are flagged below.

4. Lucas Spence (HOU): Collected first MLB hit in his debut — confirmed in the HOU lineup data.

MLB HR Prop Report — July 24, 2026

🎯 Recommended picks & combinations

🎯 Tonight's straight-bet shortlist

Yordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% model unpriced ACorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% model unpriced AJames Wood WSH 20.4% model unpriced ABen Rice NYY 20.3% model unpriced A⭐ Byron Buxton MIN 20.3% model unpriced SKyle Schwarber PHI 20.0% model unpriced A

Suggested combinations from today's S/A plays. Percentages are rough combined HR estimates (leg probabilities multiplied) — not book odds. Straights and a single 2-leg are the core; treat the lotto as a small, separate play. Bet responsibly.

✅ Straight bets

Highest-conviction individual plays — bet these on their own.

Yordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% ADV ACorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% AJames Wood WSH 20.4% ABen Rice NYY 20.3% A⭐ Byron Buxton MIN 20.3% ADV S

🎯 2-leg parlay — core~4.4% combined

Two researched plays in different games. The one parlay to anchor on.

Yordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% ADV ACorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% A

🎲 3-leg parlay~0.9% combined

Three plays across three different games (no stacking).

Yordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% ADV ACorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% ABen Rice NYY 20.3% A

🏟 Same-game pair~4.2% combined

Two bats from one strong game — the max same-game stack.

Corbin Carroll AZ 20.7% AJames Wood WSH 20.4% A

🚀 Lotto — 6 legs (small allocation)~0.0% combined

Longshot across different games. Small, separate bet only — never chase it.

Yordan Álvarez HOU 21.3% ADV ACorbin Carroll AZ 20.7% ABen Rice NYY 20.3% A⭐ Byron Buxton MIN 20.3% ADV SHunter Goodman COL 19.8% ADV AJulio Rodríguez SEA 18.3% ADV A

📈 Track record

View:

12.6%overall HR hit rate · 1171/9318 played picks

Graded slate(s): 2026-06-12 → 2026-07-24 · league HR baseline ≈ 12% per qualified bat. Higher tiers should beat it.

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	34/158	21.5%
A	203/1148	17.7%
B	505/3629	13.9%
Lotto	266/2596	10.2%
Fade	145/1647	8.8%
Unranked	18/140	12.9%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	59/284	20.8%
16–20%	244/1422	17.2%
12–16%	380/2775	13.7%
8–12%	307/2765	11.1%
<8%	139/1741	8.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	1129/8987	12.6%
Metrics	42/324	13.0%
Live research	0/7	0.0%
Sharp breakdown	120/731	16.4%

Day

Day	HR / played	Hit rate
2026-06-12	36/270	13.3%
2026-06-13	38/264	14.4%
2026-06-14	35/217	16.1%
2026-06-15	23/179	12.8%
2026-06-16	29/252	11.5%
2026-06-17	43/267	16.1%
2026-06-18	17/126	13.5%
2026-06-19	36/243	14.8%
2026-06-20	26/242	10.7%
2026-06-21	33/252	13.1%
2026-06-22	14/214	6.5%
2026-06-23	35/263	13.3%
2026-06-24	30/281	10.7%
2026-06-25	18/135	13.3%
2026-06-26	28/243	11.5%
2026-06-27	28/269	10.4%
2026-06-28	24/270	8.9%
2026-06-29	30/227	13.2%
2026-06-30	36/241	14.9%
2026-07-01	39/249	15.7%
2026-07-02	23/162	14.2%
2026-07-03	30/226	13.3%
2026-07-04	42/267	15.7%
2026-07-05	33/270	12.2%
2026-07-06	22/139	15.8%
2026-07-07	26/279	9.3%
2026-07-08	30/264	11.4%
2026-07-09	36/233	15.5%
2026-07-10	41/248	16.5%
2026-07-11	32/284	11.3%
2026-07-12	28/269	10.4%
2026-07-14	0/18	0.0%
2026-07-16	3/18	16.7%
2026-07-17	31/244	12.7%
2026-07-18	27/264	10.2%
2026-07-19	33/286	11.5%
2026-07-20	45/268	16.8%
2026-07-21	26/225	11.6%
2026-07-22	31/294	10.5%
2026-07-23	9/89	10.1%
2026-07-24	25/267	9.4%

9.4%25/267 played picks homered · Fri, Jul 24, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/1	0.0%
A	3/27	11.1%
B	13/105	12.4%
Lotto	7/90	7.8%
Fade	2/44	4.5%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/5	0.0%
16–20%	7/38	18.4%
12–16%	11/87	12.6%
8–12%	5/85	5.9%
<8%	2/52	3.8%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	25/267	9.4%
Sharp breakdown	2/21	9.5%

💥 Who homered (25)

A Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) 19.9% HR%
B Matt Olson (ATL) 19.7% HR%
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) 18.4% HR%
A Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) 17.1% HR%
B Wyatt Langford (TEX) 16.8% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 16.8% HR%
A Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 16.6% HR%
B Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) 15.8% HR%
B Rafael Devers (SF) 15.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) 14.6% HR%
Lotto Cam Smith (HOU) 13.3% HR%
B Dylan Crews (WSH) 13.1% HR%
B Joe Mack (MIA) 13.0% HR%
B Jake Burger (TEX) 12.9% HR%
Lotto Casey Schmitt (SF) 12.6% HR%
B Christian Yelich (MIL) 12.4% HR%
Lotto Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) 12.4% HR%
B Ryan Vilade (TB) 12.2% HR%
Lotto Luis Robert (NYM) 11.2% HR%
Lotto Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 11.1% HR%
Lotto Kyle Tucker (LAD) 11.1% HR%
B Anthony Seigler (BOS) 11.1% HR%
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) 8.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Vaughn Grissom (LAA) 5.9% HR%
Fade Austin Hedges (CLE) 4.0% HR%

10.1%9/89 played picks homered · Thu, Jul 23, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/1	0.0%
A	1/7	14.3%
B	3/32	9.4%
Lotto	3/31	9.7%
Fade	2/18	11.1%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/2	0.0%
16–20%	2/10	20.0%
12–16%	1/25	4.0%
8–12%	3/30	10.0%
<8%	3/22	13.6%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	9/89	10.1%
Sharp breakdown	1/17	5.9%

💥 Who homered (9)

A Michael Harris (ATL) 18.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) 16.3% HR%
B Ozzie Albies (ATL) 15.8% HR%
B Ty France (SD) 11.4% HR%
Lotto Dominic Smith (ATL) 10.1% HR%
Fade Tyler Locklear (AZ) 8.0% HR%
Lotto Patrick Bailey (CLE) 6.8% HR%
Lotto Isaac Collins (KC) 6.0% HR%
Fade James Outman (DET) 5.9% HR%

10.5%31/294 played picks homered · Wed, Jul 22, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/9	11.1%
A	3/42	7.1%
B	10/123	8.1%
Lotto	14/80	17.5%
Fade	3/40	7.5%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/13	7.7%
16–20%	6/54	11.1%
12–16%	5/94	5.3%
8–12%	15/83	18.1%
<8%	4/50	8.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	31/294	10.5%
Sharp breakdown	0/20	0.0%

💥 Who homered (31)

S Luis García (WSH) 22.2% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 19.4% HR%
A Max Muncy (LAD) 19.1% HR%
A Jackson Merrill (SD) 18.7% HR%
B Spencer Torkelson (DET) 18.5% HR%
B Corbin Carroll (AZ) 17.0% HR%
B Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 16.0% HR%
B James McCann (AZ) 14.2% HR%
Lotto Sal Stewart (CIN) 13.5% HR%
B Casey Schmitt (SF) 13.4% HR%
B Dalton Rushing (LAD) 13.4% HR%
B Trevor Larnach (MIN) 12.1% HR%
B Cameron Cauley (TEX) 11.9% HR%
Lotto Marcus Semien (NYM) 11.8% HR%
Lotto JJ Wetherholt (STL) 11.8% HR%
B Alec Bohm (PHI) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Hao-Yu Lee (DET) 11.3% HR%
B Luis Rengifo (SD) 10.5% HR%
Lotto Isaac Paredes (HOU) 10.5% HR%
Lotto Ryan Waldschmidt (AZ) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Jeff McNeil (ATH) 9.5% HR%
Lotto Gabriel Moreno (AZ) 9.4% HR%
Lotto JJ Bleday (CIN) 9.4% HR%
Lotto Salvador Pérez (KC) 9.2% HR%
Lotto Brett Baty (NYM) 8.8% HR%
Fade Jeremy Peña (HOU) 8.5% HR%
Lotto Kyle Manzardo (CLE) 8.5% HR%
Lotto Brooks Lee (MIN) 7.2% HR%
Lotto Bryan De La Cruz (PHI) 6.0% HR%
Fade Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 5.8% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 5.4% HR%

11.6%26/225 played picks homered · Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/6	33.3%
A	3/34	8.8%
B	15/89	16.9%
Lotto	4/59	6.8%
Fade	2/37	5.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/10	20.0%
16–20%	6/43	14.0%
12–16%	12/68	17.6%
8–12%	6/60	10.0%
<8%	0/44	0.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	26/225	11.6%
Sharp breakdown	1/20	5.0%

💥 Who homered (26)

S CJ Abrams (WSH) 21.1% HR%
S Hunter Goodman (COL) 21.0% HR%
B Manny Machado (SD) 19.4% HR%
B Mickey Moniak (COL) 18.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Dillon Dingler (DET) 18.1% HR%
A Max Muncy (LAD) 18.1% HR%
A Jo Adell (LAA) 16.6% HR%
B Shea Langeliers (ATH) 16.4% HR%
B Joe Mack (MIA) 15.8% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 15.4% HR%
B Carter Jensen (KC) 15.2% HR%
B Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 15.0% HR%
B Wyatt Langford (TEX) 14.8% HR%
B Fernando Tatís (SD) 14.7% HR%
B Jackson Merrill (SD) 14.6% HR%
B Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 14.4% HR%
B Brandon Nimmo (TEX) 14.4% HR%
Lotto Julio Rodríguez (SEA) 12.9% HR%
Lotto Luis Robert (NYM) 12.7% HR%
Lotto Isaac Paredes (HOU) 12.2% HR%
B Jacob Wilson (ATH) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Yandy Díaz (TB) 11.2% HR%
B Jared Young (NYM) 10.1% HR%
B Max Kepler (AZ) 10.1% HR%
Fade Jeremy Peña (HOU) 9.8% HR%
Fade Nick Fortes (TB) 8.7% HR%

16.8%45/268 played picks homered · Mon, Jul 20, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/4	0.0%
A	9/35	25.7%
B	22/119	18.5%
Lotto	11/72	15.3%
Fade	3/38	7.9%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	4/10	40.0%
16–20%	8/52	15.4%
12–16%	20/87	23.0%
8–12%	8/77	10.4%
<8%	5/42	11.9%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	45/268	16.8%
Sharp breakdown	5/24	20.8%

💥 Who homered (45)

A Manny Machado (SD) 20.3% HR%
A CJ Abrams (WSH) 20.2% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 20.2% HR%
A Ketel Marte (AZ) 20.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Riley Greene (DET) 20.0% HR%
A Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 19.3% HR%
B Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 19.0% HR%
A Joc Pederson (TEX) 18.1% HR%
A Bryce Harper (PHI) 18.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Dillon Dingler (DET) 17.9% HR%
B Trea Turner (PHI) 17.5% HR%
A Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 16.7% HR%
B Michael Harris (ATL) 15.9% HR%
B Michael Busch (CHC) 15.7% HR%
B Heliot Ramos (SF) 15.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Andrés Chaparro (WSH) 15.2% HR%
B Ty France (SD) 15.2% HR%
B Brandon Marsh (PHI) 14.7% HR%
B Joe Mack (MIA) 14.6% HR%
B Mookie Betts (LAD) 14.6% HR%
B Ian Happ (CHC) 14.5% HR%
B Ozzie Albies (ATL) 14.4% HR%
B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) 14.2% HR%
B Travis Bazzana (CLE) 14.1% HR%
B Jake Burger (TEX) 14.1% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Cal Raleigh (SEA) 13.7% HR%
B Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) 13.3% HR%
Lotto Cooper Pratt (MIL) 13.1% HR%
Lotto Caleb Durbin (BOS) 13.0% HR%
Lotto Rhys Hoskins (CLE) 12.9% HR%
B Victor Mesa (TB) 12.2% HR%
Lotto Salvador Pérez (KC) 12.0% HR%
Lotto Jo Adell (LAA) 12.0% HR%
Lotto Willy Adames (SF) 11.7% HR%
B Liam Hicks (MIA) 11.6% HR%
B Jacob Wilson (ATH) 11.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Petey Halpin (CLE) 10.5% HR%
Lotto Andrew Vaughn (MIL) 10.2% HR%
Lotto Cedric Mullins (TB) 9.3% HR%
Fade Nick Fortes (TB) 8.2% HR%
Fade Jeremy Peña (HOU) 7.4% HR%
Lotto Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 6.4% HR%
Lotto Patrick Bailey (CLE) 6.3% HR%
Lotto Jacob Young (WSH) 6.2% HR%
Fade Joey Ortiz (MIL) 6.2% HR%

11.5%33/286 played picks homered · Sun, Jul 19, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/7	14.3%
A	11/49	22.4%
B	12/119	10.1%
Lotto	6/64	9.4%
Fade	3/47	6.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/14	21.4%
16–20%	11/60	18.3%
12–16%	10/91	11.0%
8–12%	8/76	10.5%
<8%	1/45	2.2%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	33/286	11.5%
Sharp breakdown	6/23	26.1%

💥 Who homered (33)

A Sal Stewart (CIN) 20.9% HR%
S Francisco Lindor (NYM) 20.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Hunter Goodman (COL) 20.5% HR%
A Fernando Tatís (SD) 19.4% HR%
A Willson Contreras (BOS) 18.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Riley Greene (DET) 18.6% HR%
A Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) 18.2% HR%
A Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 17.9% HR%
A Jac Caglianone (KC) 17.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Wyatt Langford (TEX) 16.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Dylan Crews (WSH) 16.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Drake Baldwin (ATL) 16.2% HR%
B Jackson Merrill (SD) 16.1% HR%
A Colson Montgomery (CWS) 16.1% HR%
B Kevin McGonigle (DET) 15.1% HR%
B Alex Bregman (CHC) 14.5% HR%
B Austin Riley (ATL) 14.3% HR%
B Bryce Eldridge (SF) 14.3% HR%
B Willi Castro (COL) 14.1% HR%
B Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 14.0% HR%
B Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 13.9% HR%
B Ty France (SD) 13.5% HR%
Lotto CJ Abrams (WSH) 12.7% HR%
Lotto Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 12.1% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Victor Mesa (TB) 11.8% HR%
Lotto Cole Young (SEA) 11.1% HR%
Lotto José Altuve (HOU) 10.8% HR%
B Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) 10.6% HR%
Fade Coby Mayo (BAL) 9.8% HR%
Lotto Tommy Edman (LAD) 9.3% HR%
Fade Alec Bohm (PHI) 9.1% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 8.2% HR%
Lotto Esteury Ruiz (MIA) 7.2% HR%

10.2%27/264 played picks homered · Sat, Jul 18, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/6	16.7%
A	3/29	10.3%
B	13/122	10.7%
Lotto	7/74	9.5%
Fade	3/33	9.1%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/13	15.4%
16–20%	5/39	12.8%
12–16%	11/99	11.1%
8–12%	8/76	10.5%
<8%	1/37	2.7%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	27/264	10.2%
Sharp breakdown	1/15	6.7%

💥 Who homered (27)

S Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) 20.8% HR%
A Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 20.3% HR%
B Lane Thomas (KC) 19.4% HR%
A Joc Pederson (TEX) 18.6% HR%
B Michael Harris (ATL) 16.9% HR%
A Rafael Devers (SF) 16.5% HR%
B Spencer Torkelson (DET) 16.2% HR%
B Tyrone Taylor (NYM) 15.5% HR%
B Trea Turner (PHI) 15.3% HR%
B Michael Busch (CHC) 14.9% HR%
B Carlos Cortes (ATH) 14.8% HR%
B Eli White (ATL) 14.7% HR%
B Fernando Tatís (SD) 14.5% HR%
B Kody Clemens (MIN) 14.1% HR%
B Travis Bazzana (CLE) 14.0% HR%
Lotto Willy Adames (SF) 13.9% HR%
Lotto Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 13.3% HR%
B TJ Rumfield (COL) 12.6% HR%
Lotto Jacob Wilson (ATH) 10.8% HR%
B Cole Young (SEA) 10.3% HR%
Lotto Travis Bazzana (CLE) 10.1% HR%
Lotto Victor Mesa (TB) 10.0% HR%
Fade Salvador Pérez (KC) 9.7% HR%
Lotto Evan Carter (TEX) 9.3% HR%
Fade Jose Trevino (CIN) 8.8% HR%
Lotto Jahmai Jones (BOS) 8.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Jonny DeLuca (TB) 5.8% HR%

12.7%31/244 played picks homered · Fri, Jul 17, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/5	40.0%
A	4/32	12.5%
B	17/104	16.3%
Lotto	6/73	8.2%
Fade	2/30	6.7%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/9	22.2%
16–20%	8/46	17.4%
12–16%	12/78	15.4%
8–12%	7/78	9.0%
<8%	2/33	6.1%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	31/244	12.7%
Sharp breakdown	5/21	23.8%

💥 Who homered (31)

S Junior Caminero (TB) 22.1% HR%
S Junior Caminero (TB) 20.6% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 19.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 19.6% HR%
A Matt Olson (ATL) 19.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Willson Contreras (BOS) 19.4% HR%
A Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) 17.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 16.8% HR%
A Max Muncy (LAD) 16.4% HR%
B Shea Langeliers (ATH) 16.1% HR%
B Corbin Carroll (AZ) 15.8% HR%
B Sam Antonacci (CWS) 15.1% HR%
B Spencer Steer (CIN) 15.0% HR%
B Lane Thomas (KC) 14.9% HR%
B George Springer (TOR) 14.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Griffin Conine (MIA) 14.2% HR%
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) 14.0% HR%
B JJ Wetherholt (STL) 13.4% HR%
B Willi Castro (COL) 13.2% HR%
B Andrés Chaparro (WSH) 13.0% HR%
Lotto Tim Tawa (AZ) 12.5% HR%
Lotto Willy Adames (SF) 12.2% HR%
B Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Austin Riley (ATL) 11.5% HR%
Lotto Ty France (SD) 10.6% HR%
B Bryce Eldridge (SF) 10.5% HR%
B Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 10.1% HR%
Lotto Luis Urías (TOR) 9.5% HR%
Fade Taylor Ward (BAL) 9.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Brandon Valenzuela (TOR) 6.9% HR%
Fade Joey Ortiz (MIL) 4.9% HR%

16.7%3/18 played picks homered · Thu, Jul 16, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/3	0.0%
A	0/5	0.0%
B	3/7	42.9%
Lotto	0/3	0.0%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/3	0.0%
16–20%	0/7	0.0%
12–16%	2/4	50.0%
8–12%	1/3	33.3%
<8%	0/1	0.0%

💥 Who homered (3)

B Trea Turner (PHI) 15.7% HR%
B Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 14.6% HR%
B Brett Baty (NYM) 10.3% HR%

0.0%0/18 played picks homered · Tue, Jul 14, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	0/3	0.0%
B	0/8	0.0%
Lotto	0/5	0.0%
Unranked	0/2	0.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Metrics	0/11	0.0%
Live research	0/7	0.0%

💥 Who homered (0)

No graded home runs in this view.

10.4%28/269 played picks homered · Sun, Jul 12, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/3	0.0%
A	6/31	19.4%
B	12/105	11.4%
Lotto	7/83	8.4%
Fade	3/47	6.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/8	12.5%
16–20%	5/37	13.5%
12–16%	8/71	11.3%
8–12%	9/101	8.9%
<8%	5/52	9.6%

💥 Who homered (28)

A Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 20.4% HR%
A James Wood (WSH) 19.7% HR%
A Shea Langeliers (ATH) 19.5% HR%
A Samuel Basallo (BAL) 18.8% HR%
A Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 18.8% HR%
A Sam Antonacci (CWS) 16.5% HR%
B Alex Bregman (CHC) 14.8% HR%
B Josh Lowe (LAA) 14.7% HR%
B Trevor Larnach (MIN) 14.4% HR%
B Jonathan Aranda (TB) 14.4% HR%
B Cam Smith (HOU) 13.3% HR%
B Nathan Lukes (TOR) 13.2% HR%
B José Altuve (HOU) 12.8% HR%
B Francisco Lindor (NYM) 12.8% HR%
B Leody Taveras (BAL) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Denzer Guzman (LAA) 11.5% HR%
B Marcell Ozuna (PIT) 11.1% HR%
B Chase DeLauter (CLE) 11.0% HR%
B Braden Montgomery (CWS) 10.6% HR%
Lotto Tim Tawa (AZ) 10.6% HR%
Lotto Kyle Higashioka (TEX) 10.2% HR%
Lotto Randy Arozarena (SEA) 10.0% HR%
Lotto Weston Wilson (SEA) 9.1% HR%
Fade Ernie Clement (TOR) 7.8% HR%
Lotto Henry Davis (PIT) 7.8% HR%
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) 7.4% HR%
Fade Jake McCarthy (COL) 5.8% HR%
Fade Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 5.6% HR%

11.3%32/284 played picks homered · Sat, Jul 11, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/1	0.0%
A	4/24	16.7%
B	14/121	11.6%
Lotto	7/85	8.2%
Fade	7/53	13.2%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/6	16.7%
16–20%	5/35	14.3%
12–16%	10/82	12.2%
8–12%	10/102	9.8%
<8%	6/59	10.2%

💥 Who homered (32)

A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 20.9% HR%
A James Wood (WSH) 19.9% HR%
A Pete Alonso (BAL) 17.0% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 16.6% HR%
A Eduardo Valencia (DET) 16.3% HR%
B Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 16.1% HR%
B Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 15.8% HR%
B Coby Mayo (BAL) 14.7% HR%
B Royce Lewis (MIN) 14.6% HR%
B Curtis Mead (WSH) 14.0% HR%
B Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) 14.0% HR%
B Casey Schmitt (SF) 13.9% HR%
B Alex Bregman (CHC) 13.7% HR%
Lotto Kyle Karros (COL) 12.7% HR%
Lotto Trent Grisham (NYY) 12.5% HR%
Lotto Vladimir Guerrero (TOR) 12.1% HR%
B JJ Bleday (CIN) 11.8% HR%
Lotto Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 11.7% HR%
B Taylor Ward (BAL) 11.5% HR%
B Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) 10.5% HR%
B Carson Kelly (CHC) 10.2% HR%
B Lars Nootbaar (STL) 10.1% HR%
Lotto Mauricio Dubón (ATL) 9.3% HR%
Fade Ty France (SD) 8.9% HR%
Fade James McCann (AZ) 8.8% HR%
Lotto Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 8.1% HR%
Fade Andruw Monasterio (BOS) 6.8% HR%
Lotto Jonatan Clase (TOR) 6.7% HR%
Fade Christian Vázquez (HOU) 6.3% HR%
Fade Ezequiel Duran (TEX) 5.7% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 5.6% HR%
Fade LaMonte Wade (HOU) 5.5% HR%

16.5%41/248 played picks homered · Fri, Jul 10, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/2	0.0%
A	7/27	25.9%
B	16/95	16.8%
Lotto	11/75	14.7%
Fade	7/49	14.3%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/5	40.0%
16–20%	11/44	25.0%
12–16%	8/67	11.9%
8–12%	11/78	14.1%
<8%	9/54	16.7%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	41/248	16.5%
Sharp breakdown	2/22	9.1%

💥 Who homered (41)

A Ben Rice (NYY) 20.8% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 20.1% HR%
A Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 19.8% HR%
A Jac Caglianone (KC) 19.4% HR%
B Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 19.4% HR%
B Junior Caminero (TB) 18.8% HR%
B James Wood (WSH) 18.5% HR%
A Samuel Basallo (BAL) 18.5% HR%
A Rafael Devers (SF) 18.3% HR%
B Wyatt Langford (TEX) 18.1% HR%
B Spencer Torkelson (DET) 17.1% HR%
B Jake Burger (TEX) 16.6% HR%
A Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) 16.1% HR%
B Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 15.3% HR%
B Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) 14.8% HR%
B Andy Pages (LAD) 14.4% HR%
B Joc Pederson (TEX) 13.9% HR%
B Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) 13.0% HR%
B Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 12.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Yainer Diaz (HOU) 12.5% HR%
Lotto Austin Wells (NYY) 12.2% HR%
Lotto Tristan Peters (CWS) 11.7% HR%
B Victor Mesa (TB) 11.3% HR%
B Colt Keith (DET) 11.2% HR%
Lotto JJ Bleday (CIN) 11.0% HR%
B Jasson Domínguez (NYY) 10.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Kevin McGonigle (DET) 10.0% HR%
Lotto Chase DeLauter (CLE) 9.8% HR%
Lotto Miguel Vargas (CWS) 9.8% HR%
Lotto Cedric Mullins (TB) 9.4% HR%
Lotto Cole Young (SEA) 9.2% HR%
Fade Vaughn Grissom (LAA) 8.1% HR%
Fade Blaze Alexander (BAL) 7.7% HR%
Lotto Brett Baty (NYM) 7.2% HR%
Lotto Keibert Ruiz (WSH) 6.3% HR%
Lotto Leo Jimenez (MIA) 6.2% HR%
Fade Tim Tawa (AZ) 5.9% HR%
Fade Anthony Seigler (BOS) 5.7% HR%
Fade Isaac Collins (KC) 5.3% HR%
Fade Xander Bogaerts (SD) 4.5% HR%
Fade Richie Palacios (TB) 4.0% HR%

15.5%36/233 played picks homered · Thu, Jul 09, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/3	0.0%
A	5/21	23.8%
B	13/90	14.4%
Lotto	12/72	16.7%
Fade	6/47	12.8%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/3	0.0%
16–20%	7/32	21.9%
12–16%	13/70	18.6%
8–12%	8/72	11.1%
<8%	8/56	14.3%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	36/233	15.5%
Sharp breakdown	4/21	19.0%

💥 Who homered (36)

B Jordan Walker (STL) 18.7% HR%
A Matt Olson (ATL) 18.6% HR%
A Tyler O'Neill (BAL) 17.9% HR%
A Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 17.8% HR%
A Lane Thomas (KC) 17.8% HR%
A Juan Soto (NYM) 16.3% HR%
B Manny Machado (SD) 16.1% HR%
B Justin Foscue (TEX) 15.6% HR%
B Bobby Witt (KC) 15.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Caleb Durbin (BOS) 14.5% HR%
B Dominic Canzone (SEA) 14.1% HR%
B Gabriel Arias (CLE) 14.0% HR%
B Ben Rice (NYY) 13.9% HR%
Lotto Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 13.7% HR%
Lotto Casey Schmitt (SF) 13.4% HR%
B Chase DeLauter (CLE) 12.9% HR%
B Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 12.9% HR%
B Jake Bauers (MIL) 12.8% HR%
Lotto Brandon Nimmo (TEX) 12.7% HR%
Lotto Randy Arozarena (SEA) 12.4% HR%
Lotto Junior Caminero (TB) 11.7% HR%
B Jake Rogers (DET) 11.7% HR%
B Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) 11.3% HR%
Lotto Royce Lewis (MIN) 10.4% HR%
Lotto Jim Jarvis (ATL) 9.7% HR%
Lotto Griffin Conine (MIA) 9.5% HR%
Lotto Bryce Eldridge (SF) 9.1% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Willy Adames (SF) 8.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Willi Castro (COL) 7.6% HR%
Lotto Brice Turang (MIL) 7.5% HR%
Fade Zach McKinstry (DET) 7.3% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 6.1% HR%
Lotto Austin Wells (NYY) 6.1% HR%
Fade Jake Mangum (PIT) 5.0% HR%
Fade Patrick Bailey (CLE) 4.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Ezequiel Duran (TEX) 4.1% HR%

11.4%30/264 played picks homered · Wed, Jul 08, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/3	33.3%
A	4/27	14.8%
B	11/92	12.0%
Lotto	5/77	6.5%
Fade	9/65	13.8%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/7	28.6%
16–20%	5/35	14.3%
12–16%	10/73	13.7%
8–12%	8/86	9.3%
<8%	5/63	7.9%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	30/264	11.4%
Sharp breakdown	2/20	10.0%

💥 Who homered (30)

A Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 20.6% HR%
S Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 20.4% HR%
B Pete Alonso (BAL) 19.7% HR%
A Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 19.0% HR%
B Sal Stewart (CIN) 18.5% HR%
A Luis García (WSH) 18.4% HR%
A Mike Trout (LAA) 17.3% HR%
B Rhys Hoskins (CLE) 15.6% HR%
B CJ Abrams (WSH) 15.0% HR%
B Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 15.0% HR%
B Michael Conforto (CHC) 14.9% HR%
B Spencer Torkelson (DET) 14.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Jo Adell (LAA) 13.6% HR%
Lotto J. T. Realmuto (PHI) 13.6% HR%
B Kyle Stowers (MIA) 13.2% HR%
Lotto Noelvi Marte (CIN) 12.3% HR%
B A. J. Ewing (NYM) 12.2% HR%
B JJ Bleday (CIN) 11.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Kyle Karros (COL) 10.9% HR%
Lotto Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) 10.1% HR%
Fade Luis Campusano (SD) 9.7% HR%
Lotto José Fermín (STL) 9.6% HR%
Fade George Springer (TOR) 9.5% HR%
Fade Vladimir Guerrero (TOR) 8.4% HR%
Fade Tommy Troy (AZ) 8.0% HR%
Fade Carson Kelly (CHC) 7.3% HR%
Fade Joey Bart (ATL) 6.3% HR%
Fade Edouard Julien (COL) 5.9% HR%
Fade Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 5.4% HR%
Fade Alec Burleson (STL) 4.7% HR%

9.3%26/279 played picks homered · Tue, Jul 07, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/3	66.7%
A	2/27	7.4%
B	12/112	10.7%
Lotto	4/76	5.3%
Fade	6/61	9.8%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/7	42.9%
16–20%	3/38	7.9%
12–16%	4/71	5.6%
8–12%	8/97	8.2%
<8%	8/66	12.1%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	26/279	9.3%
Sharp breakdown	0/18	0.0%

💥 Who homered (26)

A Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 21.3% HR%
S Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 20.3% HR%
S James Wood (WSH) 20.2% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 17.6% HR%
A Juan Soto (NYM) 16.5% HR%
B Rhys Hoskins (CLE) 16.1% HR%
B Nelson Velázquez (STL) 15.9% HR%
B Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) 15.2% HR%
B José Altuve (HOU) 15.2% HR%
B Ben Rice (NYY) 14.2% HR%
B Owen Caissie (MIA) 12.0% HR%
Lotto Yandy Díaz (TB) 11.3% HR%
B Andruw Monasterio (BOS) 11.0% HR%
B Cole Young (SEA) 10.9% HR%
B Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) 10.6% HR%
B Victor Mesa (TB) 10.2% HR%
B Colt Keith (DET) 10.1% HR%
Lotto A. J. Ewing (NYM) 9.2% HR%
Lotto Hunter Feduccia (TB) 7.5% HR%
Lotto Henry Bolte (ATH) 6.5% HR%
Fade Jake Cronenworth (SD) 5.9% HR%
Fade Joey Ortiz (MIL) 5.7% HR%
Fade Joey Ortiz (MIL) 5.3% HR%
Fade Alejandro Osuna (TEX) 5.0% HR%
Fade Tyler Tolbert (KC) 4.8% HR%
Fade Nick Loftin (KC) 4.8% HR%

15.8%22/139 played picks homered · Mon, Jul 06, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/1	0.0%
A	4/13	30.8%
B	10/52	19.2%
Lotto	4/38	10.5%
Fade	4/35	11.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/2	0.0%
16–20%	5/19	26.3%
12–16%	7/38	18.4%
8–12%	7/45	15.6%
<8%	3/35	8.6%

💥 Who homered (22)

A James Wood (WSH) 19.7% HR%
B Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 19.2% HR%
A Matt Olson (ATL) 19.0% HR%
A Juan Soto (NYM) 18.1% HR%
A Lane Thomas (KC) 16.2% HR%
B Curtis Mead (WSH) 15.9% HR%
B José Altuve (HOU) 15.9% HR%
B Yainer Diaz (HOU) 14.3% HR%
B Ben Rice (NYY) 14.2% HR%
B CJ Abrams (WSH) 13.9% HR%
B Salvador Pérez (KC) 12.3% HR%
B Carson Benge (NYM) 12.1% HR%
B Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) 11.8% HR%
B Luke Maile (KC) 10.9% HR%
Lotto Heliot Ramos (SF) 10.7% HR%
Lotto Max Kepler (AZ) 9.5% HR%
Lotto Tyler Tolbert (KC) 9.2% HR%
Fade Brice Matthews (HOU) 8.7% HR%
Lotto Ezequiel Tovar (COL) 8.6% HR%
Fade Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) 7.8% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 6.6% HR%
Fade José Caballero (NYY) 3.9% HR%

12.2%33/270 played picks homered · Sun, Jul 05, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/8	25.0%
A	4/36	11.1%
B	15/113	13.3%
Lotto	9/67	13.4%
Fade	3/46	6.5%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/14	21.4%
16–20%	7/51	13.7%
12–16%	8/72	11.1%
8–12%	14/93	15.1%
<8%	1/40	2.5%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	33/270	12.2%
Sharp breakdown	5/23	21.7%

💥 Who homered (33)

A Casey Schmitt (SF) 21.7% HR%
S Brandon Lowe (PIT) 21.3% HR%
S Rafael Devers (SF) 20.0% HR%
B Willson Contreras (BOS) 19.7% HR%
A Luis García (WSH) 19.2% HR%
B Manny Machado (SD) 18.3% HR%
B Jordan Walker (STL) 18.0% HR%
B Kyle Karros (COL) 17.4% HR%
A Zach Neto (LAA) 17.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) 17.2% HR%
B Riley Greene (DET) 15.9% HR%
B Christian Walker (HOU) 15.5% HR%
B Tyrone Taylor (NYM) 14.9% HR%
B Drake Baldwin (ATL) 14.8% HR%
B Jake Bauers (MIL) 14.7% HR%
Lotto Jake Burger (TEX) 13.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Dylan Crews (WSH) 12.7% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Otto Lopez (MIA) 12.6% HR%
B Jarren Duran (BOS) 11.9% HR%
B Gabriel Arias (CLE) 11.7% HR%
B Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 11.7% HR%
Lotto A. J. Ewing (NYM) 11.4% HR%
Lotto Spencer Steer (CIN) 11.2% HR%
B Drew Gilbert (SF) 10.9% HR%
B Tristan Peters (CWS) 10.4% HR%
Lotto Mitch Garver (SEA) 10.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Isaac Paredes (HOU) 10.0% HR%
Lotto Colson Montgomery (CWS) 10.0% HR%
Fade Chase DeLauter (CLE) 9.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Kyle Teel (CWS) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Leo Jimenez (MIA) 9.6% HR%
Lotto Jonah Heim (ATH) 8.9% HR%
Fade Ezequiel Duran (TEX) 5.2% HR%

15.7%42/267 played picks homered · Sat, Jul 04, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/6	33.3%
A	8/42	19.0%
B	19/102	18.6%
Lotto	5/71	7.0%
Fade	8/46	17.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/8	25.0%
16–20%	10/58	17.2%
12–16%	15/76	19.7%
8–12%	10/74	13.5%
<8%	5/51	9.8%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	42/267	15.7%
Sharp breakdown	4/22	18.2%

💥 Who homered (42)

S Kyle Stowers (MIA) 21.1% HR%
S Willson Contreras (BOS) 20.5% HR%
A James Wood (WSH) 20.0% HR%
B Jackson Chourio (MIL) 19.6% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 19.4% HR%
A Josh Bell (MIN) 18.7% HR%
B Junior Caminero (TB) 18.4% HR%
A Samuel Basallo (BAL) 18.2% HR%
A Cole Carrigg (COL) 17.7% HR%
A Romy Gonzalez (BOS) 17.2% HR%
A Trevor Larnach (MIN) 16.8% HR%
A Kody Clemens (MIN) 16.5% HR%
B Michael Harris (ATL) 15.9% HR%
B Riley Greene (DET) 15.8% HR%
B Mark Vientos (NYM) 15.3% HR%
B Bryce Eldridge (SF) 14.8% HR%
B Colson Montgomery (CWS) 14.6% HR%
B Joe Mack (MIA) 14.5% HR%
B Austin Riley (ATL) 14.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Dominic Canzone (SEA) 14.0% HR%
B Jasson Domínguez (NYY) 13.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Alex Jackson (MIN) 13.5% HR%
B Eli White (ATL) 12.7% HR%
Lotto JJ Wetherholt (STL) 12.6% HR%
Lotto Freddie Freeman (LAD) 12.6% HR%
B Christian Yelich (MIL) 12.5% HR%
B Cal Raleigh (SEA) 12.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Randy Arozarena (SEA) 11.6% HR%
Lotto J. T. Realmuto (PHI) 11.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Josh Lowe (LAA) 11.4% HR%
B Adrian Del Castillo (AZ) 10.9% HR%
B Mauricio Dubón (ATL) 10.5% HR%
B Tyrone Taylor (NYM) 10.4% HR%
B Gabriel Rincones Jr. (PHI) 10.2% HR%
Fade Luke Keaschall (MIN) 9.9% HR%
Fade Yainer Diaz (HOU) 8.7% HR%
Fade Otto Lopez (MIA) 8.1% HR%
Fade Alec Bohm (PHI) 7.3% HR%
Fade Jonny DeLuca (TB) 6.6% HR%
Fade Max Schuemann (NYY) 5.6% HR%
Fade Austin Hedges (CLE) 5.4% HR%
Fade Richie Palacios (TB) 4.3% HR%

13.3%30/226 played picks homered · Fri, Jul 03, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/3	66.7%
A	11/44	25.0%
B	10/90	11.1%
Lotto	5/51	9.8%
Fade	2/38	5.3%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/9	33.3%
16–20%	10/47	21.3%
12–16%	9/73	12.3%
8–12%	7/65	10.8%
<8%	1/32	3.1%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	30/226	13.3%
Sharp breakdown	0/15	0.0%

💥 Who homered (30)

S Rafael Devers (SF) 22.1% HR%
A Junior Caminero (TB) 20.4% HR%
S Nick Kurtz (ATH) 20.3% HR%
A Ben Rice (NYY) 19.7% HR%
A Matt Olson (ATL) 19.3% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 18.8% HR%
A Luis García (WSH) 18.6% HR%
A Samuel Basallo (BAL) 18.5% HR%
A Michael Harris (ATL) 17.3% HR%
A Juan Soto (NYM) 17.2% HR%
A Kyle Stowers (MIA) 17.2% HR%
A Owen Caissie (MIA) 17.1% HR%
A Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 16.8% HR%
B Kody Clemens (MIN) 15.8% HR%
B Garrett Mitchell (MIL) 15.6% HR%
B Trent Grisham (NYY) 14.5% HR%
B Daylen Lile (WSH) 14.4% HR%
B Ozzie Albies (ATL) 13.5% HR%
Lotto Ezequiel Tovar (COL) 13.4% HR%
B Caleb Durbin (BOS) 12.9% HR%
B Masyn Winn (STL) 12.5% HR%
Lotto Teoscar Hernández (LAD) 12.0% HR%
B José Siri (LAA) 11.9% HR%
B Jackson Merrill (SD) 11.3% HR%
Lotto Nathan Church (STL) 11.1% HR%
B Jake McCarthy (COL) 10.4% HR%
Fade Miguel Vargas (CWS) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Jakob Marsee (MIA) 8.9% HR%
Lotto José Tena (WSH) 8.8% HR%
Fade Nick Fortes (TB) 7.4% HR%

14.2%23/162 played picks homered · Thu, Jul 02, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/6	16.7%
A	1/17	5.9%
B	9/68	13.2%
Lotto	7/46	15.2%
Fade	5/25	20.0%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/7	14.3%
16–20%	2/25	8.0%
12–16%	5/51	9.8%
8–12%	11/52	21.2%
<8%	4/27	14.8%

💥 Who homered (23)

S Mickey Moniak (COL) 21.5% HR%
A Garrett Mitchell (MIL) 17.2% HR%
B Jordan Walker (STL) 16.2% HR%
B Manny Machado (SD) 15.5% HR%
B Sal Stewart (CIN) 15.3% HR%
B Carter Jensen (KC) 15.1% HR%
B Cedric Mullins (TB) 13.6% HR%
B Jackson Merrill (SD) 12.3% HR%
B Colt Keith (DET) 10.5% HR%
Lotto Hao-Yu Lee (DET) 10.5% HR%
B Elías Díaz (TEX) 10.1% HR%
B Jake McCarthy (COL) 10.0% HR%
Lotto Dalton Rushing (LAD) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Nathan Church (STL) 9.7% HR%
Lotto TJ Friedl (CIN) 9.3% HR%
Lotto Endy Rodríguez (PIT) 9.1% HR%
Lotto Alec Burleson (STL) 9.1% HR%
Fade Nick Gonzales (PIT) 8.3% HR%
Fade Chase Meidroth (CWS) 8.2% HR%
Lotto Isaac Collins (KC) 6.6% HR%
Fade Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 5.8% HR%
Fade Jose Trevino (CIN) 5.3% HR%
Fade Jake Cronenworth (SD) 4.3% HR%

15.7%39/249 played picks homered · Wed, Jul 01, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/6	0.0%
A	11/49	22.4%
B	20/112	17.9%
Lotto	4/47	8.5%
Fade	4/35	11.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/18	16.7%
16–20%	9/46	19.6%
12–16%	14/75	18.7%
8–12%	4/53	7.5%
<8%	5/40	12.5%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	35/232	15.1%
Metrics	4/17	23.5%
Sharp breakdown	2/21	9.5%

💥 Who homered (39)

A Hunter Goodman (COL) 21.5% HR%
A Junior Caminero (TB) 20.9% HR%
A Mickey Moniak (COL) 20.9% HR%
A Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 19.4% HR%
A Michael Busch (CHC) 18.9% HR%
A Francisco Lindor (NYM) 17.9% HR%
B Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 17.9% HR%
A Josh Bell (MIN) 17.9% HR%
B James Wood (WSH) 16.8% HR%
A Noelvi Marte (CIN) 16.3% HR%
B Kyle Karros (COL) 16.2% HR%
A Tyler O'Neill (BAL) 16.1% HR%
B Michael Conforto (CHC) 15.8% HR%
B Sam Antonacci (CWS) 15.7% HR%
B Kevin McGonigle (DET) 15.7% HR%
B Dansby Swanson (CHC) 15.4% HR%
B Trea Turner (PHI) 15.4% HR%
B Kody Clemens (MIN) 15.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Heliot Ramos (SF) 14.9% HR%
B Brandon Marsh (PHI) 14.9% HR%
B David Fry (CLE) 14.7% HR%
B Carson Benge (NYM) 13.7% HR%
B Sung Mun Song (SD) 13.2% HR%
B Sean Keys (TOR) 13.0% HR%
B Ozzie Albies (ATL) 12.9% HR%
Lotto Amed Rosario (NYY) 12.6% HR%
B Andrés Chaparro (WSH) 11.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Cedric Mullins (TB) 11.3% HR%
Lotto Henry Davis (PIT) 10.9% HR%
B Leody Taveras (BAL) 10.3% HR%
Lotto Elías Díaz (TEX) 8.0% HR%
Fade Alec Bohm (PHI) 7.1% HR%
Fade Luke Keaschall (MIN) 5.7% HR%
Fade Austin Hedges (CLE) 4.8% HR%
Fade Nasim Nuñez (WSH) 3.7% HR%
A Shea Langeliers (ATH) —
A Freddie Freeman (LAD) —
B Jonah Heim (ATH) —
Lotto Alika Williams (ATH) —

14.9%36/241 played picks homered · Tue, Jun 30, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	2/7	28.6%
A	9/36	25.0%
B	19/104	18.3%
Lotto	4/53	7.5%
Fade	0/35	0.0%
Unranked	2/6	33.3%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/9	22.2%
16–20%	10/44	22.7%
12–16%	16/74	21.6%
8–12%	4/60	6.7%
<8%	0/36	0.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	32/223	14.3%
Metrics	4/18	22.2%

💥 Who homered (36)

S Mickey Moniak (COL) 20.6% HR%
S Nelson Velázquez (STL) 20.1% HR%
A Kerry Carpenter (DET) 20.0% HR%
A Yordan Álvarez (HOU) 19.7% HR%
B Spencer Torkelson (DET) 19.6% HR%
A Junior Caminero (TB) 19.1% HR%
A Colson Montgomery (CWS) 17.8% HR%
A Owen Caissie (MIA) 17.6% HR%
A Fernando Tatís (SD) 17.1% HR%
A Manny Machado (SD) 16.7% HR%
A Riley Greene (DET) 16.2% HR%
A Ryan Vilade (TB) 16.2% HR%
B Ben Rice (NYY) 15.7% HR%
B Trea Turner (PHI) 15.7% HR%
B Colby Thomas (ATH) 15.4% HR%
B Jackson Chourio (MIL) 15.4% HR%
B Sal Stewart (CIN) 15.4% HR%
B Kyle Manzardo (CLE) 15.1% HR%
B Joe Mack (MIA) 14.9% HR%
B Joc Pederson (TEX) 14.9% HR%
B Carter Jensen (KC) 14.8% HR%
B Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 14.7% HR%
B Dansby Swanson (CHC) 14.7% HR%
B Alex Bregman (CHC) 14.6% HR%
B Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 14.5% HR%
Lotto Michael Busch (CHC) 14.0% HR%
Lotto Bobby Witt (KC) 13.7% HR%
B James Outman (DET) 13.4% HR%
Lotto CJ Abrams (WSH) 12.0% HR%
Lotto Josh Jung (TEX) 10.3% HR%
B Jake Bauers (MIL) 10.3% HR%
B Tommy Edman (LAD) 10.1% HR%
B Rafael Devers (SF) —
B Ketel Marte (AZ) —
Unranked Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ) —
Unranked Luis Arraez (SF) —

13.2%30/227 played picks homered · Mon, Jun 29, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/7	0.0%
A	7/38	18.4%
B	11/89	12.4%
Lotto	7/58	12.1%
Fade	5/35	14.3%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	3/12	25.0%
16–20%	5/43	11.6%
12–16%	12/82	14.6%
8–12%	5/51	9.8%
<8%	5/39	12.8%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	30/227	13.2%
Sharp breakdown	6/14	42.9%

💥 Who homered (30)

A Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 21.6% HR%
A Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 20.9% HR%
A Hunter Goodman (COL) 20.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Bryce Harper (PHI) 19.2% HR%
A Francisco Lindor (NYM) 18.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Willson Contreras (BOS) 18.9% HR%
A Brandon Marsh (PHI) 18.3% HR%
A Ketel Marte (AZ) 16.8% HR%
B James Wood (WSH) 15.8% HR%
B Heliot Ramos (SF) 15.7% HR%
B Andy Pages (LAD) 15.0% HR%
B Josh Bell (MIN) 15.0% HR%
B Taylor Trammell (HOU) 14.7% HR%
B Dominic Canzone (SEA) 14.4% HR%
B Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 13.9% HR%
Lotto Zach Neto (LAA) 13.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Otto Lopez (MIA) 13.1% HR%
Lotto Royce Lewis (MIN) 12.7% HR%
B Colby Thomas (ATH) 12.5% HR%
Lotto Trea Turner (PHI) 12.2% HR%
B Gabriel Arias (CLE) 11.4% HR%
Lotto Caleb Durbin (BOS) 10.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Cam Smith (HOU) 9.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Jared Triolo (PIT) 8.9% HR%
Lotto Endy Rodríguez (PIT) 8.5% HR%
Lotto Cole Young (SEA) 7.7% HR%
Lotto Víctor Caratini (MIN) 6.7% HR%
Fade Joey Ortiz (MIL) 5.1% HR%
Fade Brice Turang (MIL) 4.9% HR%
Fade Nolan Arenado (AZ) 4.9% HR% 🤠 sharp

8.9%24/270 played picks homered · Sun, Jun 28, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/2	0.0%
A	3/21	14.3%
B	12/111	10.8%
Lotto	7/81	8.6%
Fade	2/55	3.6%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/3	0.0%
16–20%	7/36	19.4%
12–16%	6/86	7.0%
8–12%	9/88	10.2%
<8%	2/57	3.5%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	24/270	8.9%
Sharp breakdown	3/26	11.5%

💥 Who homered (24)

B Pete Alonso (BAL) 20.0% HR%
A Luis García (WSH) 18.5% HR%
B Christian Walker (HOU) 18.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Bryan Torres (STL) 18.1% HR%
A Joc Pederson (TEX) 17.9% HR%
B Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) 17.7% HR%
B Junior Caminero (TB) 17.5% HR%
B Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 15.3% HR%
B Nathan Lukes (TOR) 14.6% HR%
B Kody Clemens (MIN) 14.1% HR%
B Ketel Marte (AZ) 13.7% HR%
Lotto Ryan Kreidler (MIN) 13.6% HR%
Lotto Manny Machado (SD) 13.1% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Miguel Vargas (CWS) 11.3% HR%
B Tyler Callihan (PIT) 11.0% HR%
B Gary Sánchez (MIL) 10.7% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Isaac Paredes (HOU) 10.6% HR%
B Raynel Delgado (HOU) 10.4% HR%
B Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) 10.1% HR%
Lotto Josh Lowe (LAA) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Cedric Mullins (TB) 8.5% HR%
Lotto Zach McKinstry (DET) 8.2% HR%
Fade Jackson Holliday (BAL) 5.6% HR%
Fade Ben Williamson (TB) 4.3% HR%

10.4%28/269 played picks homered · Sat, Jun 27, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	6/25	24.0%
B	10/105	9.5%
Lotto	8/81	9.9%
Fade	4/58	6.9%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	2/5	40.0%
16–20%	5/29	17.2%
12–16%	11/81	13.6%
8–12%	5/89	5.6%
<8%	5/65	7.7%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	28/269	10.4%
Sharp breakdown	8/31	25.8%

💥 Who homered (28)

A Hunter Goodman (COL) 20.7% HR%
A Jackson Chourio (MIL) 20.7% HR% 🤠 sharp
A Luis García (WSH) 19.7% HR%
A Bryce Harper (PHI) 19.1% HR%
B Junior Caminero (TB) 18.9% HR%
A Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 18.9% HR%
A Kerry Carpenter (DET) 16.0% HR%
B Brandon Lowe (PIT) 15.8% HR%
B Eugenio Suárez (CIN) 15.3% HR%
B Mookie Betts (LAD) 14.8% HR%
B Corey Seager (TEX) 13.9% HR%
B Ketel Marte (AZ) 13.8% HR%
B Jonathan Aranda (TB) 13.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Rafael Devers (SF) 13.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Ian Happ (CHC) 13.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Yohendrick Pinango (TOR) 12.3% HR%
Lotto Kyle Tucker (LAD) 12.1% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Randy Arozarena (SEA) 12.0% HR%
Lotto Kyle Karros (COL) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Sal Stewart (CIN) 11.2% HR%
Lotto Hao-Yu Lee (DET) 10.3% HR%
Lotto Cam Smith (HOU) 9.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Dalton Rushing (LAD) 9.2% HR%
Lotto Gavin Sheets (SD) 7.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 6.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 6.2% HR%
Fade Max Schuemann (NYY) 4.7% HR%
Fade Anthony Seigler (BOS) 4.2% HR%

11.5%28/243 played picks homered · Fri, Jun 26, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
A	2/6	33.3%
B	5/21	23.8%
Lotto	8/88	9.1%
Fade	0/10	0.0%
Unranked	13/118	11.0%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Metrics	28/243	11.5%
Sharp breakdown	6/21	28.6%

💥 Who homered (28)

A Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) —
Unranked Marcell Ozuna (PIT) — 🤠 sharp
Unranked Konnor Griffin (PIT) —
A Miguel Vargas (CWS) —
B Andrew Benintendi (CWS) —
Lotto Tristan Peters (CWS) —
Lotto Jacob Gonzalez (CWS) — 🤠 sharp
Unranked Kyle Teel (CWS) — 🤠 sharp
B Hunter Goodman (COL) —
Lotto Kody Clemens (MIN) —
Unranked Brooks Lee (MIN) —
Unranked Jake McCarthy (COL) —
B Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — 🤠 sharp
Lotto Justin Foscue (TEX) —
B Garrett Mitchell (MIL) —
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) —
Lotto Seiya Suzuki (CHC) —
Unranked Kerry Carpenter (DET) —
Unranked Colt Keith (DET) —
Unranked James Outman (DET) —
Unranked Colt Emerson (SEA) —
B Willson Contreras (BOS) —
Unranked Jo Adell (LAA) — 🤠 sharp
Lotto Junior Caminero (TB) —
Unranked Cedric Mullins (TB) — 🤠 sharp
Unranked Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) —
Lotto Ty France (SD) —
Unranked Mookie Betts (LAD) —

13.3%18/135 played picks homered · Thu, Jun 25, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/2	50.0%
A	3/8	37.5%
B	7/51	13.7%
Lotto	6/45	13.3%
Fade	1/29	3.4%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/2	50.0%
16–20%	4/15	26.7%
12–16%	6/43	14.0%
8–12%	4/42	9.5%
<8%	3/33	9.1%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	18/135	13.3%
Sharp breakdown	3/11	27.3%

💥 Who homered (18)

S Bryce Harper (PHI) 21.4% HR%
A Curtis Mead (WSH) 18.0% HR%
A Brandon Marsh (PHI) 17.8% HR%
A Joc Pederson (TEX) 17.3% HR%
B Wyatt Langford (TEX) 16.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Dillon Dingler (DET) 16.0% HR%
B Victor Bericoto (SF) 15.8% HR%
B Brandon Lowe (PIT) 14.5% HR%
B Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) 13.8% HR%
Lotto Jake Burger (TEX) 13.7% HR%
Lotto Junior Caminero (TB) 13.7% HR%
B Willy Adames (SF) 10.4% HR%
B Taylor Trammell (HOU) 10.1% HR%
Lotto Carter Jensen (KC) 8.7% HR%
Lotto Victor Mesa (TB) 8.5% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Henry Davis (PIT) 7.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Eric Wagaman (NYM) 6.8% HR%
Lotto José Caballero (NYY) 6.0% HR%

10.7%30/281 played picks homered · Wed, Jun 24, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	1/1	100.0%
A	1/27	3.7%
B	20/131	15.3%
Lotto	5/63	7.9%
Fade	3/59	5.1%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	1/9	11.1%
16–20%	2/28	7.1%
12–16%	16/97	16.5%
8–12%	8/84	9.5%
<8%	3/63	4.8%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	30/281	10.7%
Sharp breakdown	7/34	20.6%

💥 Who homered (30)

S Luis García (WSH) 20.8% HR%
B Jorge Soler (LAA) 18.8% HR%
A Ketel Marte (AZ) 17.5% HR%
B Bo Bichette (NYM) 15.7% HR%
B Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 15.5% HR%
B Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 15.4% HR%
B Mookie Betts (LAD) 14.7% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Mark Vientos (NYM) 14.5% HR%
B Spencer Steer (CIN) 14.2% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Jake Bauers (MIL) 14.0% HR%
B Andruw Monasterio (BOS) 14.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Wyatt Langford (TEX) 13.8% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Jorbit Vivas (WSH) 13.4% HR%
B Nathan Lukes (TOR) 13.2% HR%
B Samuel Basallo (BAL) 13.1% HR%
B José Fermín (STL) 12.6% HR%
B Joc Pederson (TEX) 12.6% HR%
B Bo Bichette (NYM) 12.6% HR%
B LuJames Groover (AZ) 12.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
B A. J. Ewing (NYM) 12.0% HR%
Lotto William Contreras (MIL) 11.3% HR%
B Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) 10.6% HR%
B Jasson Domínguez (NYY) 10.2% HR%
B Connor Wong (BOS) 10.0% HR%
Fade A. J. Ewing (NYM) 9.4% HR%
Fade Rafael Devers (SF) 9.3% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Braden Montgomery (CWS) 8.9% HR%
Lotto Joey Bart (ATL) 7.4% HR% 🤠 sharp
Lotto Ty France (SD) 6.6% HR%
Fade Otto Lopez (MIA) 4.9% HR%

13.3%35/263 played picks homered · Tue, Jun 23, 2026

Tier

Tier	HR / played	Hit rate
S	0/1	0.0%
A	0/21	0.0%
B	14/95	14.7%
Lotto	10/79	12.7%
Fade	10/58	17.2%
Unranked	1/9	11.1%

HR-prob bucket

HR-prob bucket	HR / played	Hit rate
20%+	0/7	0.0%
16–20%	1/25	4.0%
12–16%	11/69	15.9%
8–12%	11/86	12.8%
<8%	10/58	17.2%

Source

Source	HR / played	Hit rate
Model	33/245	13.5%
Metrics	2/18	11.1%
Sharp breakdown	5/42	11.9%

💥 Who homered (35)

B Brandon Marsh (PHI) 17.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Ezequiel Tovar (COL) 15.6% HR%
B Cal Raleigh (SEA) 15.0% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Jac Caglianone (KC) 14.9% HR%
B Daulton Varsho (TOR) 14.6% HR%
B Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 14.4% HR%
B Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 14.0% HR%
B Kahlil Watson (CLE) 14.0% HR%
Lotto Junior Caminero (TB) 13.9% HR% 🤠 sharp
B Willi Castro (COL) 12.7% HR%
B Brandon Nimmo (TEX) 12.2% HR%
B Owen Caissie (MIA) 12.0% HR%
B Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Bo Bichette (NYM) 11.6% HR%
Lotto Cam Smith (HOU) 11.6% HR%
B Joc Pederson (TEX) 11.2% HR%
Lotto Yainer Diaz (HOU) 11.0% HR%
B Taylor Trammell (HOU) 10.4% HR%
Lotto Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) 9.9% HR%
Lotto Francisco Álvarez (NYM) 9.5% HR%
Lotto Nick Loftin (KC) 9.4% HR%
Lotto Cole Young (SEA) 8.7% HR%
Lotto Miguel Vargas (CWS) 8.6% HR% 🤠 sharp
Fade Luis Urías (TOR) 7.7% HR%
Lotto Joe Mack (MIA) 7.6% HR%
Fade Jorbit Vivas (WSH) 7.3% HR%
Fade Dansby Swanson (CHC) 7.2% HR%
Fade Bryson Stott (PHI) 6.5% HR%
Fade Nolan Schanuel (LAA) 5.8% HR%
Fade Brooks Lee (MIN) 5.8% HR%
Fade Víctor Caratini (MIN) 5.6% HR%
Fade Alex Call (LAD) 5.4% HR%
Fade Jung Hoo Lee (SF) 4.2% HR%
Unranked Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — 🤠 sharp
Fade Mauricio Dubón (ATL) —

Hit = the batter homered in a game he actually started/played (benched picks are excluded). Pick a day to see who homered. Updated automatically after games go final.

🔥 Top HR picks — top 35 of 225 ranked batters

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